Unreliable Climate Emissions Projections
Inconsistent and unreliable projections for UK aviation emissions reductions, reducing confidence in climate policy planning.
Source spread
Where this theme appears
This theme appears across 4 independent accountability sources, so the source mix matters as much as the headline total.
1 PFD report
74 committee recs
3 NAO recs
Browse by source
Source-grouped records are useful for tracing where a concern came from. Large sections show the 50 strongest matches for that source; counts still show the full theme total.
Select committee recommendations(74)— showing 50 strongest matches
#22 — No BECCS projects in Track 1 despite importance for unachievable 2030 greenhouse gas removal targets
Recommendation: The original 2030 targets for the CCUS programme, which the government has now told us are unachievable, included a goal for the UK to achieve 5 mtpa of engineered greenhouse gas removals. The bulk of this was expected to be …
Response attribution not verified
#21 — Concerns raised about CCUS effectiveness and unaddressed methane leakage from LNG supply chains
Recommendation: The Department recognised that there are some “contested views” concerning, for example, the effectiveness of CCUS in reducing emissions from gas–fired power stations.69 We received written evidence suggesting that there are higher levels of methane (a gas with significant greenhouse …
Response attribution not verified
#19 — 2030 carbon capture and storage targets deemed unachievable by the Department
Recommendation: In the latter part of 2024, the Department successfully concluded negotiations with two of the Track 1 projects. In December 2024, the Department announced it had signed contracts with the first two projects at East Coast Cluster: Net Zero Teesside …
Response attribution not verified
#6 — Set out urgent new carbon capture targets and clarify how to address net zero shortfall
Recommendation: The Department has downgraded its ambitions for the CCUS programme, stating that the original 2030 ambitions are no longer achievable. The current CCUS programme is the government’s third attempt to introduce the technology. Compared with previous attempts, the government is …
Response attribution not verified
#23 — BECCS considered essential for UK decarbonisation, despite reduced projected role by 2050.
Recommendation: Combining power generation using sustainably sourced biomass with carbon capture and storage (CCUS) has the potential to generate ‘negative emissions’–i.e. it could reduce the overall amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.65 Both the government and the Climate Change Committee (CCC), …
Response attribution not verified
#22 — New Drax agreement offers limited impact on emissions and lacks BECCS investment incentives.
Recommendation: There are other factors which cast doubt on whether the government has reached a good deal. The new support agreement with Drax reduces the level of allowed supply chain emissions for the fuel it burns, from 55.6 grams of CO2 …
Response attribution not verified
#4 — Map critical path for BECCS deployment and develop contingency plans for decarbonisation goals.
Recommendation: The deployment of BECCS has been repeatedly delayed, even though it remains a key part of the government’s plans to decarbonise the UK. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) and DESNZ both see BECCS as essential to the UK achieving its …
Response attribution not verified
#2 — Estimate cost and test effectiveness of monitoring increased biomass sustainability and Drax's sourcing.
Recommendation: DESNZ has not made clear how its plans to strengthen the sustainability rules might work in practice. In its Biomass Strategy, published in August 2023, DESNZ committed to develop and consult on a common sustainability framework which could be applied …
Response attribution not verified
#53 — Investigate using the tax system to incentivise carbon footprint reduction in existing properties.
Recommendation: As with the embodied and operational carbon recommendation (Para 138nb mbnj ) we believe that the Government should investigate how it can use the tax system to reduce the tax burden on properties that reduce their carbon footprint and/or increase …
Response attribution not verified
#52 — Prioritise and incentivise building retrofitting over demolition by strengthening reuse requirements and reducing VAT.
Recommendation: Government should prioritise and incentivise retrofitting over demolition by strengthening requirements to reuse, repurpose and refurbish buildings before any demolition. It is contrary to the Government’s environmental objectives to incentivise carbon-intensive new building over the re-use of existing sites. To …
Response attribution not verified
#51 — Prioritise strengthening policy focus on building retrofit and regeneration due to environmental benefits.
Recommendation: Although retrofit and regeneration of buildings is already encouraged in policy, it is often sidelined. Strengthening focus in this area should be prioritised, considering the range of benefits associated with doing so. (Conclusion, Paragraph 167)
Response attribution not verified
#50 — Retrofitting existing buildings offers more sustainable and environmentally friendly housing solutions.
Recommendation: Retrofitting existing buildings is more environmentally friendly and sustainable than demolition and new construction. We accept that not all existing properties can be converted into residential buildings, and do not deny that some new homes do need to be built. …
Response attribution not verified
#49 — Consult by April 2026 on financial incentives for lower embodied carbon products and manufacturing.
Recommendation: The Government could also consider other financial incentives in product areas where the cost differential makes adoption of lower embodied carbon products unattractive and support for manufacturing set up of lower embodied carbon products. We recommend that the Government consult, …
Response attribution not verified
#48 — Introduce eco-labelling for building products to popularise low-carbon materials in housebuilding.
Recommendation: Whilst the Government has taken initial steps to promote timber through the Timber Construction Roadmap, there remains a lack of clear incentives and guidance to encourage the adoption of low-carbon material in housebuilding. The Committee believes the Government should take …
Response attribution not verified
#47 — Alternative building materials effectively reduce embodied carbon and support net zero ambitions.
Recommendation: Alternative building materials, such as timber and hemp, offer practical and effective ways to reduce the embodied carbon of buildings. Their use supports Government ambitions to reach net zero and continue to deliver on their sustainable housing target, in addition …
Response attribution not verified
#46 — Update NPPF revision with clearer expectations and conduct consultation on embodied carbon reduction.
Recommendation: The December 2024 revision of the NPPF should be updated to include clearer and stronger expectations on embodied carbon for new developments. The current Government should also honour the promise made by the previous Government and conduct a consultation on …
Response attribution not verified
#45 — Revised NPPF lacks explicit reference to embodied carbon, limiting emission reduction.
Recommendation: The revised NPPF does not contain explicit reference to embodied carbon, despite a widely held opinion that the NPPF must play a central role in supporting low-carbon housing. This oversight limits the NPPF’s ability to minimise carbon emissions from new …
Response attribution not verified
#44 — Mandate major developers submit whole life carbon assessments for all planning applications.
Recommendation: Major developers should submit whole life carbon assessments as part of planning applications to local authorities; this should be mandatory for all major developments, as defined in the NPPF. The Government should consult on ways to financially incentivise housing development …
Response attribution not verified
#43 — Accompany RICS whole life carbon assessment framework amendments with a formal statement.
Recommendation: We would encourage any amendments made to the RICS whole life carbon assessment framework to be accompanied with a formal statement, detailing the amendments and confirming that they have been approved to become part of the UK industry standard. This …
Response attribution not verified
#42 — Commission a review into Council Tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax for lower embodied carbon homes.
Recommendation: We recommend that the Government commission a review into Council Tax, Stamp Duty Land Tax and any other tax policies to consider the merit of offering lower bands of taxation for homes with lower levels of embodied carbon. (Recommendation, Paragraph …
Response attribution not verified
#41 — Review taxation policies to incentivise homeowners, housebuilders, landlords, and tenants towards low-carbon homes.
Recommendation: The Government should consider what other steps it could take to encourage low-carbon approaches to building, including reviewing taxation policies to incentivise home owners, housebuilders, landlords and tenants to favour homes with lower levels of embodied carbon. (Recommendation, Paragraph 143)
Response attribution not verified
#40 — Develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets and set timeframe for mandatory whole-life carbon assessments.
Recommendation: Additionally: a. “We recommend that following the introduction of whole life carbon assessments, the Government should develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets for the built environment, to match the pathway to net zero set out in periodic carbon budgets. These ratcheting …
Response attribution not verified
#39 — Establish RICS methodology as the UK industry standard for whole-life carbon assessments.
Recommendation: We reiterate and support the recommendation given by our predecessor Committee on embodied carbon and whole-life carbon assessments: a. “The RICS Professional Statement on whole-life carbon assessments is fit for use and already familiar to UK industry. We recommend that, …
Response attribution not verified
#38 — Accelerate introduction of policy to reduce embodied carbon in the built environment.
Recommendation: Reducing embodied carbon is vital to decreasing the carbon emissions of the built environment and meeting the UK’s legally binding climate targets. Considering that key milestones for reducing carbon emissions are rapidly approaching, the Government must accelerate the introduction of …
Response attribution not verified
#8 —
Recommendation: Climate change poses a grave threat to the flood resilience of communities, with the Climate Change Committee warning that warming of 4°C or more implies inevitable increases in flood risk even in the most ambitious adaptation scenarios considered. The Government …
Response attribution not verified
#5 —
Recommendation: Trustees will need detailed and regularly updated guidelines provided by the Pensions Regulator to explain how they should consider the effects of climate change on pension scheme members. We recommend that the Pensions Regulator continuously monitor and update these guidelines.
Response attribution not verified
#63 —
Recommendation: The volume of greenhouse gas emissions has a significant impact on the capacity of LDCs and SIDS to adapt to climate change. On 9 August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Sixth Assessment report, which the …
Response attribution not verified
#62 —
Recommendation: We believe that the current level of ICF is fundamentally over-reported, reducing the credibility of declarations and scope for achieving climate adaptation and resilience. We are calling for full transparency in the reporting of climate finance to enhance the ability …
Response attribution not verified
#60 —
Recommendation: Although the UK was rated among the better performers in this report, CARE stated that, like other countries, the data provided by the UK lacked clarity and completeness in terms of the recipients and programmes to be funded.132
Response attribution not verified
#56 —
Recommendation: Contributors raised significant concerns around the accuracy of the amount of global international climate finance that is being reported as pledged and disbursed for adaptation by the UK and other donor countries.123 In its report published in January 2021, CARE …
Response attribution not verified
#55 —
Recommendation: In its biennial progress report (December 2020), the Government stated that: Our funding will be new and in addition to our previous £5.8 billion ICF commitment.118 Many contributors criticised this statement for its interpretation of ‘new and additional’.119 The NGOs …
Response attribution not verified
#54 —
Recommendation: We heard that another challenge was the different interpretation of the term ‘new and additional’. At COP15 in Copenhagen (2009), high-income countries agreed to provide new and additional funding “approaching US$30 billion” for 2010–2012 for climate adaptation and mitigation.116 Although …
Response attribution not verified
#53 —
Recommendation: In their paper on climate finance, Roberts et al stated that the “US$100 billion per year climate finance promise had deep flaws, making it impossible to now assess whether it has been met.”113 Although the pledge of US$100 billion per …
Response attribution not verified
#52 —
Recommendation: Despite its omnipresence in climate negotiations, there is no officially agreed definition of climate finance.110 In November 2020, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that the level of climate finance was US$78.9 billion in 2018.111 Yet, the …
Response attribution not verified
#5 —
Recommendation: We believe that the current level of international climate finance is fundamentally over-reported, reducing the credibility of declarations and scope for achieving climate adaptation and resilience. We are calling for full transparency in the reporting of climate finance to enhance …
Response attribution not verified
#9 —
Recommendation: We recommend that following the introduction of whole-life carbon assessments, the Government should develop progressively ratcheted carbon targets for the built environment, to match the pathway to net zero set out in periodic carbon budgets. These ratcheting targets should be …
Response attribution not verified
#17 —
Recommendation: The Government should ensure that delivery of the Seventh Carbon Budget is grounded primarily in early, high-confidence emissions reductions where possible. Greenhouse gas removals should be treated as conditional and supplementary, not as substitutes for mitigation. (Recommendation, Paragraph 93)
Response attribution not verified
#16 —
Recommendation: Delivery of the Seventh Carbon Budget relies on nascent technologies and on greenhouse gas removals, including both land-based approaches and engineered removals, some of which face significant uncertainty over scale, cost, and delivery timescales. While these options are necessary for …
Response attribution not verified
#7 — Commission comparative analysis of UK aircraft emissions models with Climate Change Committee.
Recommendation: We recommend that the Government work with the Climate Change Committee and Sustainable Aviation on a comparative analysis of the models underpinning the projections for UK aircraft emissions, so as to reach consensus, as far as possible, on the likely …
Response attribution not verified
#6 — Varying projections for UK aviation emissions reductions by 2050 lack reliability
Recommendation: The outputs from the modelling undertaken by the Climate Change Committee, the Government and Sustainable Aviation vary as to the projections of likely emissions reductions from UK aviation by 2050. In some instances these variations are substantial, and tend to …
Response attribution not verified
#18 — Integrate Antarctic research and preservation into broader international climate strategies.
Recommendation: To safeguard Antarctica’s environment, it is crucial to integrate Antarctic research and preservation into broader international climate strategies. Rising sea levels, driven by climate change in Antarctica, pose an existential risk to the UK, making it imperative to act now …
Response attribution not verified
#16 — Limiting global warming to 1.5°C critical for preventing Antarctic ice sheet destabilisation.
Recommendation: Evidence presented during the course of this inquiry highlights the critical importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Achieving this target is essential for preventing further destabilisation of Antarctica’s ice sheets and glaciers, which are already experiencing significant changes due …
Response attribution not verified
#11 —
Recommendation: We asked whether by the time we get to COP 26 everybody will have a good idea of exactly how the government is going to meet its net carbon target by 2050. HM Treasury told us this was really a …
Response attribution not verified
#61 —
Recommendation: The FCDO told us that the UK reported its ICF at programme level—that is, a more granular level—to the UNFCCC, and provided details such as programme codes.133 It also told us that all its programme documentation is held in the …
Response attribution not verified
#17 —
Recommendation: We welcome the innovative steps the UK Government has taken to support Nigeria’s transition to a low carbon economy. However, we believe there is scope for higher ambition in its goals and greater clarity in its approach. We recommend the …
Response attribution not verified
#8 —
Recommendation: The timeline for the Future Homes Standard should be brought forward to December 2023 to align the timeframes for addressing operational and embodied carbon. This will help provide the industry with the confidence it requires to construct low- carbon, energy …
Response attribution not verified
#13 — Other Defence organisations lack detailed plans to achieve net zero by 2050.
Recommendation: We note with interest the RAF setting itself a demanding target for reducing carbon emissions—a decade ahead of the Government’s 2050 goal—and look forward to examining the detailed plan for how it will be achieved. The RAF has also set …
Response attribution not verified
#12 — Adopt Science-Based Targets for Defence and develop carbon reduction plans for suppliers.
Recommendation: We welcome the Ministry of Defence’s efforts to expand coverage of carbon emissions, but more needs to be achieved to ensure all Defence emissions are measured. Best commercial practice for promoting emissions reductions and net-zero targets are the Science Based …
Response attribution not verified
#11 — Ensure Defence sets more demanding Greening Government Commitments targets for 2025-2030.
Recommendation: The Ministry of Defence is in line to achieve its Greening Government Commitments’ carbon reduction targets early, but these are insufficiently demanding. It appears that the Ministry can meet its targets entirely by taking advantage of the decarbonisation of the …
Response attribution not verified
#10 — Publish in-depth annual review of Defence climate performance and explain reporting discrepancies.
Recommendation: The Ministry of Defence should return to publishing a more in-depth, stand-alone annual review of its climate and sustainability performance, with independent verification of emissions measuring and reporting. It should commission work to better understand total defence carbon emissions. It …
Response attribution not verified
NAO audit recommendations(3)
Decarbonising the power sector
In developing arrangements to oversee progress against its plan, DESNZ should: d) review the capability of its modelling to refine and update the most cost-effective system-wide approach to achieving net zero, including power sector decarbonisation. It should consider, for example, …
Accepted
Resilience to animal disease
Defra and APHA should, over the next 18 months: d develop a coherent, time-bound strategy and plan that sets out how they will ensure resilience to animal disease within the context of increasing risk from factors such as climate change …
Accepted
Energy bills support: an update
DESNZ should consider how it might use its understanding of the uncertainty around, for example, wholesale energy prices and changes in demand to improve its assessment of the costs of future interventions.
Accepted