Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service
Public Accounts Committee
HC 1235
Published 4 February 2026
Recommendations
2
Accepted
Set out how to monitor Probation Service impact on reoffending and share Reset evaluation findings.
Recommendation
MoJ and HMPPS do not know how probation performance affects outcomes such as reoffending. The overall aims of the Probation Service are to protect the public and to reduce reoffending. MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending …
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Government Response Summary
The government accepts, stating work is underway to capture data and develop an evaluation strategy to monitor the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall. Findings from the 'Reset' initiative evaluation, including recall rates, will be published by July 2026.
HM Treasury
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3
Accepted
Set out when staff workloads will reduce and how to manage future changes.
Recommendation
Longstanding staff shortages have left probation staff dealing with excessive and unmanageable workloads. At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of target staffing. According to HMPPS’s data, probation officers have been working on average …
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Government Response Summary
The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS aims to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with more details to staff in March/April 2026. They plan to manage change volume by sequencing implementations, using a Gateway Management System, and introducing twice-yearly change 'freezes'.
HM Treasury
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4
Accepted
Set out assessment for digital tool rollout, risk thresholds for changes, and monitoring breaches.
Recommendation
We are not confident that MoJ and HMPPS can successfully manage the risks associated with the new probation programme. Over an 18-month period, HMPPS’s new programme - Our Future Probation Service - aims to introduce new digital tools, changes to …
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Government Response Summary
The government accepts all recommendations. It will assess digital tools based on cross-government standards and support models, manage risk thresholds through established governance and OFPS Board scrutiny, and monitor breaches via fortnightly OFPS board meetings and escalation processes.
HM Treasury
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5
Accepted
Set out plans to manage staffing shortfalls, staff training, and workload reduction contingencies.
Recommendation
We are not satisfied that HMPPS’s new programme will free up sufficient capacity to improve performance. HMPPS aims to close the current shortfall of 3,150 probation staff by March 2027, by freeing up operational capacity by 25% through its ‘Our …
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Government Response Summary
The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS concluded a review of frontline work to understand staffing, will ensure capacity for 8 training days per staff member by reducing workloads through OFPS, and has contingency plans involving continuous monitoring and alternative options if workload targets are not met.
HM Treasury
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6
Accepted
Write to Committee on funding for third sector support and reoffending reduction assurance.
Recommendation
Sufficient third sector and private sector capacity is required to meet offender needs, but decisions around funding are still unclear. HMPPS’s planned changes to the scope of the Probation Service will likely reduce probation supervision for many offenders assessed to …
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Government Response Summary
The government accepts both recommendations, committing to write to the Committee within six months with an update on Serco's performance for electronic monitoring and tag fitting. They also commit to providing details on the future role of third and private sector organisations in the Probation Service, including funding and assurance of support for offenders.
HM Treasury
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10
Accepted
Ministry of Justice accepted responsibility for poor Probation Service performance only after repeated questioning.
Recommendation
We asked MoJ whether it accepted responsibility for the poor performance of the service following unification. MoJ told us that it had started to see improvements in performance, particularly in relation to risk assessment and management. It said that this …
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Government Response Summary
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.
HM Treasury
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12
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS failed to acknowledge link between poor probation performance and deteriorating outcomes.
Recommendation
HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision by a probation practitioner can significantly improve sentence completion rates and reduce reoffending.23 We asked MoJ about the extent to which poor probation performance has influenced worsening outcomes, including …
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Government Response Summary
The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.
HM Treasury
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13
Accepted
Evaluation of 'Reset' scheme lacks assessment of impact on reoffending and public protection.
Recommendation
We asked MoJ whether it has evaluated the impact of prioritisation measures such as ‘Reset’ and ‘Impact’, on rehabilitation outcomes. It told us that it is hard to attribute changes in reoffending rates to particular schemes, and it is too …
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Government Response Summary
The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.
HM Treasury
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15
Accepted
Probation staff face immense pressure from constant policy changes and high workloads.
Recommendation
In addition to high caseloads, staff have also had to deal with a high level of change. In 2023–24, HMPPS estimated there were around 100 new national proposals to change probation processes—84% of which were business- as-usual changes, such as …
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Government Response Summary
HMPPS recognises the significant volume of change that staff in probation face and will develop OFPS implementation plans to carefully sequence changes. The change load is managed through the Gateway Management System, with twice yearly change ‘freezes’ introduced to provide staff with periods to consolidate knowledge.
HM Treasury
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18
Accepted
Our Future Probation Service' programme raises public safety concerns regarding reduced supervision.
Recommendation
Written evidence from the Prison Reform Trust raised concerns over potential risks to public safety from some of the proposed changes . In particular, they were concerned that reducing rehabilitative activity for lower-risk individuals, while necessary and pragmatic in the …
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Government Response Summary
The department delivers digital services in line with cross‑government technology standards. Tool deployment is overseen by operational governance, and a decision to roll out a service will only be made when it is confirmed that it is supported by effective communication and appropriate support models.
HM Treasury
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20
Acknowledged
Ministry of Justice and HMPPS lack clear "red lines" for acceptable risks in probation reforms.
Recommendation
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale …
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Government Response Summary
The government agrees to manage implementation risks through governance arrangements, escalating risks that can’t be mitigated. HMPPS uses secondary indicators, such as performance, staffing data, and staff surveys to monitor wider organisational health.
HM Treasury
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21
Accepted
HMPPS aims to close 3,150 probation staff shortfall through 25% capacity freeing measures.
Recommendation
In July 2025, HMPPS estimated that there would be a shortfall of 3,150 full- time equivalent probation staff in 2026–27, out of approximately 15,000 full-time equivalent sentence management staff required, even after its recruitment and prioritisation measures.44 Through its OFPS …
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Government Response Summary
HMPPS concluded its full review of all frontline probation work in March 2026, providing a baseline of workloads and an understanding of the workforce required to deliver policy expectations. Activity timings data is continuously updated to reflect every change to policy or process.
HM Treasury
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22
Accepted
HMPPS's 25% probation staff capacity freeing target lacks robust evidence and certainty.
Recommendation
We asked whether freeing up 25% of capacity will be sufficient to improve performance. HMPPS told us that this is its estimate of what is needed to bring the service back into balance by April 2027, and which will allow …
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Government Response Summary
HMPPS currently factors eight days of learning and development time into workforce modelling for qualified staff. Reducing workload demand through OFPS will have the additional benefit of ensuring capacity to undertake the eight days. HMPPS will continue to review changes to probation training requirements as part of work on OFPS and the independent sentencing review.
HM Treasury
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23
Acknowledged
Significant uncertainties remain regarding achieving the 25% probation staff capacity reduction target.
Recommendation
It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in …
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Government Response Summary
HMPPS is committed to meeting the OFPS target, monitored through ministerial meetings and governance arrangements. If a gap becomes apparent, alternative options will be explored, using a prioritisation framework for risk-based decisions.
HM Treasury
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27
Accepted
Electronic monitoring expansion faces past performance issues with Serco, but improvements are now expected.
Recommendation
MoJ and HMPPS’s plans also involve a significant increase in the use of electronic monitoring. MoJ told us that the number of people on electronic monitoring has doubled in recent years, from around 10,000 people in 2020 to 26,600 in …
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Government Response Summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee within six months of the Committee’s report to provide an update on Serco performance against its key performance indicators regarding the electronic monitoring service and fitting tags.
HM Treasury
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Conclusions (12)
1
Conclusion
Not Addressed
On the basis of a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, we took evidence from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) on the efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service.1
Government Response Summary
The government's response, using boilerplate acceptance language for a non-recommendation, outlines broad plans for improving Probation Service performance and implementing a revised framework by April 2026, which does not directly address the introductory conclusion item.
7
Conclusion
Acknowledged
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
8
Conclusion
Acknowledged
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
9
Conclusion
Acknowledged
HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London and East of England.15 Despite this, HMPPS did not introduce …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
11
Conclusion
Acknowledged
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults …
Government Response Summary
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.
14
Conclusion
Accepted
Persistent staff shortages mean that probation staff have been working at a level that is unsustainable for years.26 At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of HMPPS’s target staffing level - a shortfall of 1,479 probation officers. HMPPS’s data shows that probation officers, at …
Government Response Summary
HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.
16
Conclusion
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS stated that they were focussing on improving staff retention as well as recruiting more staff. In the year ending March 2025, the leaving rate for probation staff was 9.3%, up from 6.2% in 2021, and sickness rate was 13.2 working days, up from 8.9 in 2021. Poor …
Government Response Summary
HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.
17
Conclusion
Accepted
MoJ told us that HMPPS’s ‘Our Future Probation Service’ programme is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address the root causes of the problems faced by the Probation Service, including shortfalls in staff.33 The programme will introduce new digital tools - over thirty digital initiatives are currently planned - to help reduce …
Government Response Summary
HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.
19
Conclusion
Acknowledged
Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through successive structural changes and that it therefore needs to be …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the Committee's recommendation and states it will adhere to cross-government standards relating to risk management and digital delivery with governance to ensure the risk profile of all digital, process and scope deliverables is scrutinised.
24
Conclusion
HMPPS’s planned changes to the scope of the Probation Service are likely to reduce probation supervision for many offenders assessed as at a lower risk of harm and reoffending.55 Written evidence from the Prison Reform Trust highlighted that low risk individuals often have higher rates of identified need, including housing, …
25
Conclusion
Acknowledged
We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are with not-for-profit organisations. HMPPS also stated that this indicates there …
Government Response Summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on capacity in the third sector.
26
Conclusion
Acknowledged
In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for third sector providers.59 We asked MoJ and HMPPS how much …
Government Response Summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on funding for third sector rehabilitative services.