Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 7
7
Acknowledged
Probation Service performance has significantly worsened since 2021, failing most key targets.
Conclusion
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months post release for custodial sentences.8 HMPPS’s data show that the performance of its Probation Service has worsened since unification in 2021. In 2024–25, it only met seven of its 27 (26%) performance targets, a decrease of 24 percentage points since July 2021 to March 2022 when it met eight out of the 16 targets (50%) it had at that time. HM Inspectorate of Probation’s (HMIP’s) inspections also 5 C&AG’s Report, para 3.2 6 C&AG’s Report, para 3.7 7 Committee of Public Accounts, Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service Written Evidence 8 C&AG’s Report, para 1.9, Figures 4, 5 9 suggest a deterioration in quality. For example, in 2024, HMIP found that probation practitioners adequately assessed risk of harm in just 28% of cases, compared with 60% in 2018–19.9
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 1.2 The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. 1.3 In year 1 (to March 2027), delivery will focus on implementing the Sentencing Act and the recommendations arising from the independent sentencing review to establish a sustainable delivery model. HMPPS is refining how it measures performance to provide clearer direction and ensure system-wide focus on the areas most strongly linked to public protection and reduced reoffending. A revised performance framework, centred on a smaller number of priority metrics, will be introduced in April 2026. Improvement plans for each priority metric will be embedded at national, regional and area levels, supported by clear trajectories to track progress over time. This tighter focus is expected to strengthen operational delivery, including more consistent risk management, improved completion of key activities, and stronger compliance with core operating standards. 1.4 In year 2 (to March 2028) focus will be on embedding these reforms and accelerating measurable improvements against the priority metrics set in year one. Through this period, HMPPS would expect to see further improvements in the quality and timeliness of court and community assessments, strengthening case supervision, and increasing workforce stability and probation officer availability. 1.5 In year 3 (to March 2029), the government expects the Probation Service to be positioned to achieve the full set of probation performance ambitions. 1.6 Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.