Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 11
11
Acknowledged
Offender outcomes like reoffending rates and prison recalls have significantly deteriorated since 2021.
Conclusion
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults supervised by the Probation Service, either released from custody or starting a court order, was 36% for the cohorts supervised in July to September 2023 (latest data available), five percentage points higher than 31% for the cohorts supervised in April to June 2021. The average number of reoffences per reoffender also increased from 3.8 to 5.0 reoffences across the same period. There were 770 offenders charged with a Serious Further Offence while under probation in 2023–24, 55% more than in 2020–21. And the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15% of the prison population, a 49% increase since June 2021.22
Government Response Summary
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 1.2 The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. 1.3 In year 1 (to March 2027), delivery will focus on implementing the Sentencing Act and the recommendations arising from the independent sentencing review to establish a sustainable delivery model. HMPPS is refining how it measures performance to provide clearer direction and ensure system-wide focus on the areas most strongly linked to public protection and reduced reoffending. A revised performance framework, centred on a smaller number of priority metrics, will be introduced in April 2026. Improvement plans for each priority metric will be embedded at national, regional and area levels, supported by clear trajectories to track progress over time. This tighter focus is expected to strengthen operational delivery, including more consistent risk management, improved completion of key activities, and stronger compliance with core operating standards. 1.4 In year 2 (to March 2028) focus will be on embedding these reforms and accelerating measurable improvements against the priority metrics set in year one. Through this period, HMPPS would expect to see further improvements in the quality and timeliness of court and community assessments, strengthening case supervision, and increasing workforce stability and probation officer availability. 1.5 In year 3 (to March 2029), the government expects the Probation Service to be positioned to achieve the full set of probation performance ambitions. 1.6 Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.