Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 2
2
Accepted
Set out how to monitor Probation Service impact on reoffending and share Reset evaluation findings.
Recommendation
MoJ and HMPPS do not know how probation performance affects outcomes such as reoffending. The overall aims of the Probation Service are to protect the public and to reduce reoffending. MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25. HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision significantly reduces reoffending. Given the service’s poor performance, it is unsurprising that reoffending outcomes have deteriorated since 2021. The reoffending rate for adults supervised by the Probation Service was 5% higher in 2023 (latest data 3 available) than in 2021, and the number of offenders charged with a Serious Further Offence while under probation was 55% higher in 2023–24 than in 2020–21. Additionally, the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all- time high. Offender outcomes can be influenced by many factors, including whether people leave prison into safe housing and employment. However, at our evidence session in December, HMPPS did not accept that its poor performance in probation was linked to the rise in reoffending. HMPPS is evaluating the impact on recall rates of reduced supervision for most offenders in the last third of their sentence (‘Reset’). It is important that the effect on reoffending and public protection is also examined. recommendation In their Treasury Minute response, MoJ and HMPPS should set out: a. what more they could do to monitor and understand the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall; and b. when they will be able to share their findings from their evaluation of the ‘Reset’ initiative, including its impact on recall rates.
Government Response Summary
The government accepts, stating work is underway to capture data and develop an evaluation strategy to monitor the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall. Findings from the 'Reset' initiative evaluation, including recall rates, will be published by July 2026.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented Work is underway to capture the data required to monitor the impact of changes to the probation service on key metrics. Work is also underway to develop a probation evaluation strategy for the changes being implemented later this year. The department will continue to monitor reoffending and recall, and this will continue to be published via regular National Statistical publications in the usual way. The monitoring and evaluation plans being developed are considering how the department can better understand impacts on key outcomes such as these. However, as evidence to the hearing set out, it is very challenging to attribute changes in the reoffending measure to individual initiatives due to the large number of changes underway at a national level (due to the lack of a robust comparison group). Evaluation of the changes introduced through ‘Reset’ will be published by July 2026 in line with standard Government Social Research publication protocols on GOV.UK.