Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 21
21
Accepted
HMPPS aims to close 3,150 probation staff shortfall through 25% capacity freeing measures.
Recommendation
In July 2025, HMPPS estimated that there would be a shortfall of 3,150 full- time equivalent probation staff in 2026–27, out of approximately 15,000 full-time equivalent sentence management staff required, even after its recruitment and prioritisation measures.44 Through its OFPS programme, HMPPS aims to free up operational capacity by 25% to close this shortfall. It explained that one third of the additional capacity will come through digital measures such as the AI transcribing tool, one third through process optimisation and one third through policy changes to the scope of probation services provided, for example, revisiting the scope of its ‘Reset’ programme.45
Government Response Summary
HMPPS concluded its full review of all frontline probation work in March 2026, providing a baseline of workloads and an understanding of the workforce required to deliver policy expectations. Activity timings data is continuously updated to reflect every change to policy or process.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
5.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 5.2 HMPPS concluded its full review of all frontline probation work in March 2026, providing a baseline of workloads and an understanding of the workforce required to deliver policy expectations. HMPPS has created a dataset holding circa 7,000 activities, each with a typical timing provided by the frontline staff undertaking that work, alongside data on volumes. 5.3 HMPPS’ approach to collecting activity timings data is still developing but will continue to improve the agency’s ability to understand workload and workforce requirements. Accuracy of the data is maintained through real‑time updates to policy and process, combined with biennial, practitioner‑informed reviews. This sustainable and repeatable approach has been subject to robust scrutiny and quality assurance, ensuring HMPPS does not return to a position where its understanding of workload becomes outdated. 5.4 Activity timings data is continuously updated to reflect every change to policy or process. Prior to implementing any organisational change, an impact assessment will identify any increase or decrease in workload. This approach ensures for informed decision making that balances workloads demands and affordability. 5.5 MoJ and HMPPS model the current capacity gap (as evidenced through the activity timings data) and incorporate planned digital transformation and policy changes, alongside forecasted recruitment. This enables forward looking service design based on a consolidated and authoritative view of future capacity and demand.