Recommendation 23

It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in place to address the 25% gap.50 It explained that, even if the programme delivers on its objective, it still needs to close a residual staffing gap of 1,950 44 C&AG’s Report, para 13 45 Qq 63–65 46 Qq 65–7 47 Qq 87; C&AG’s Report, para 2.18 48 Qq 72–75; C&AG’s Report, para 3.16 49 Qq 67–71,78–79 50 Qq 60,61,67 16 staff through measures that it is still considering.51 HMPPS also confirmed that it had considered the impact on probation workload from the upcoming Sentencing Bill (a net 500 full-time equivalent increase in probation staff required) in its modelling.52 However, its modelling does not yet account for additional staff needed for other areas of probation, or for the impact of some wider policy changes, for example, the Independent Review of Criminal Courts, which is likely to create additional demands on probation staff.53 MoJ stated that it will need to keep evaluating the programme as it is rolled out, to make sure it is introducing the right measures.54 Electronic monitoring, third sector and private sector capacity