Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service
Public Accounts Committee
HC 1235
Published 4 February 2026
Recommendations
20
Acknowledged
Ministry of Justice and HMPPS lack clear "red lines" for acceptable risks in probation reforms.
Recommendation
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale …
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Government Response Summary
The government agrees to manage implementation risks through governance arrangements, escalating risks that can’t be mitigated. HMPPS uses secondary indicators, such as performance, staffing data, and staff surveys to monitor wider organisational health.
HM Treasury
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23
Acknowledged
Significant uncertainties remain regarding achieving the 25% probation staff capacity reduction target.
Recommendation
It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in …
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Government Response Summary
HMPPS is committed to meeting the OFPS target, monitored through ministerial meetings and governance arrangements. If a gap becomes apparent, alternative options will be explored, using a prioritisation framework for risk-based decisions.
HM Treasury
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Conclusions (7)
7
Conclusion
Acknowledged
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
8
Conclusion
Acknowledged
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
9
Conclusion
Acknowledged
HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London and East of England.15 Despite this, HMPPS did not introduce …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
11
Conclusion
Acknowledged
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults …
Government Response Summary
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.
19
Conclusion
Acknowledged
Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through successive structural changes and that it therefore needs to be …
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the Committee's recommendation and states it will adhere to cross-government standards relating to risk management and digital delivery with governance to ensure the risk profile of all digital, process and scope deliverables is scrutinised.
25
Conclusion
Acknowledged
We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are with not-for-profit organisations. HMPPS also stated that this indicates there …
Government Response Summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on capacity in the third sector.
26
Conclusion
Acknowledged
In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for third sector providers.59 We asked MoJ and HMPPS how much …
Government Response Summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on funding for third sector rehabilitative services.