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Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee

65th Report - Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service

Public Accounts Committee HC 1235 Published 4 February 2026

Report Status

Government responded

Conclusions & Recommendations

27 items (15 recs)

Source

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Government Response

AI assessment · 26 of 27 classified

Not Addressed 1

Recommendations

13 results

2 Accepted

Set out how to monitor Probation Service impact on reoffending and share Reset evaluation findings.

Recommendation

MoJ and HMPPS do not know how probation performance affects outcomes such as reoffending. The overall aims of the Probation Service are to protect the public and to reduce reoffending. MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending … Read more

Government Response Summary

The government accepts, stating work is underway to capture data and develop an evaluation strategy to monitor the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall. Findings from the 'Reset' initiative evaluation, including recall rates, will be published by July 2026.

HM Treasury

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3 Accepted

Set out when staff workloads will reduce and how to manage future changes.

Recommendation

Longstanding staff shortages have left probation staff dealing with excessive and unmanageable workloads. At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of target staffing. According to HMPPS’s data, probation officers have been working on average … Read more

Government Response Summary

The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS aims to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with more details to staff in March/April 2026. They plan to manage change volume by sequencing implementations, using a Gateway Management System, and introducing twice-yearly change 'freezes'.

HM Treasury

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4 Accepted

Set out assessment for digital tool rollout, risk thresholds for changes, and monitoring breaches.

Recommendation

We are not confident that MoJ and HMPPS can successfully manage the risks associated with the new probation programme. Over an 18-month period, HMPPS’s new programme - Our Future Probation Service - aims to introduce new digital tools, changes to … Read more

Government Response Summary

The government accepts all recommendations. It will assess digital tools based on cross-government standards and support models, manage risk thresholds through established governance and OFPS Board scrutiny, and monitor breaches via fortnightly OFPS board meetings and escalation processes.

HM Treasury

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5 Accepted

Set out plans to manage staffing shortfalls, staff training, and workload reduction contingencies.

Recommendation

We are not satisfied that HMPPS’s new programme will free up sufficient capacity to improve performance. HMPPS aims to close the current shortfall of 3,150 probation staff by March 2027, by freeing up operational capacity by 25% through its ‘Our … Read more

Government Response Summary

The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS concluded a review of frontline work to understand staffing, will ensure capacity for 8 training days per staff member by reducing workloads through OFPS, and has contingency plans involving continuous monitoring and alternative options if workload targets are not met.

HM Treasury

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6 Accepted

Write to Committee on funding for third sector support and reoffending reduction assurance.

Recommendation

Sufficient third sector and private sector capacity is required to meet offender needs, but decisions around funding are still unclear. HMPPS’s planned changes to the scope of the Probation Service will likely reduce probation supervision for many offenders assessed to … Read more Sufficient third sector and private sector capacity is required to meet offender needs, but decisions around funding are still unclear. HMPPS’s planned changes to the scope of the Probation Service will likely reduce probation supervision for many offenders assessed to be at lower risk of harm and reoffending. As highlighted to us by the Prison Reform Trust, low-risk individuals often require support for mental health, financial and drug treatment to prevent them becoming high-risk and reoffending. HMPPS’s plans will therefore require increased community support from Commissioned Rehabilitative Services (CRS) and other third sector organisations. The government has committed to providing an additional £700 million funding for the Probation Service over the next five years, but MoJ and HMPPS have not clarified how much of this funding will be available to cover additional demand for rehabilitative services. HMPPS’s plans also involve a significant increase in the use of electronic monitoring. Currently around 26,600 people are electronically monitored in the community but MoJ expects this to increase by up to 22,000 people. However, there have been serious performance issues with the electronic monitoring service, including delays by Serco in fitting tags. 6 recommendation MoJ and HMPPS should write to the Committee within six months setting out how Serco is performing against its key performance indicators, with regard to the electronic monitoring service and fitting tags. recommendation Once MoJ and HMPPS have clarified the role that they intend third sector and private sector organisations to play in the future Probation Service they should write to the Committee setting out: a. estimates of the proportion of individuals who will need access to this support and how that will be funded; b. what assurance they have that those no longer supervised by the Probation Service will be sufficiently supported to reduce reoffending, including providing details about the asse Show less

Government Response Summary

The government accepts both recommendations, committing to write to the Committee within six months with an update on Serco's performance for electronic monitoring and tag fitting. They also commit to providing details on the future role of third and private sector organisations in the Probation Service, including funding and assurance of support for offenders.

HM Treasury

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10 Accepted

Ministry of Justice accepted responsibility for poor Probation Service performance only after repeated questioning.

Recommendation

We asked MoJ whether it accepted responsibility for the poor performance of the service following unification. MoJ told us that it had started to see improvements in performance, particularly in relation to risk assessment and management. It said that this … Read more

Government Response Summary

The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.

HM Treasury

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12 Accepted

MoJ and HMPPS failed to acknowledge link between poor probation performance and deteriorating outcomes.

Recommendation

HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision by a probation practitioner can significantly improve sentence completion rates and reduce reoffending.23 We asked MoJ about the extent to which poor probation performance has influenced worsening outcomes, including … Read more

Government Response Summary

The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.

HM Treasury

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13 Accepted

Evaluation of 'Reset' scheme lacks assessment of impact on reoffending and public protection.

Recommendation

We asked MoJ whether it has evaluated the impact of prioritisation measures such as ‘Reset’ and ‘Impact’, on rehabilitation outcomes. It told us that it is hard to attribute changes in reoffending rates to particular schemes, and it is too … Read more

Government Response Summary

The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.

HM Treasury

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15 Accepted

Probation staff face immense pressure from constant policy changes and high workloads.

Recommendation

In addition to high caseloads, staff have also had to deal with a high level of change. In 2023–24, HMPPS estimated there were around 100 new national proposals to change probation processes—84% of which were business- as-usual changes, such as … Read more

Government Response Summary

HMPPS recognises the significant volume of change that staff in probation face and will develop OFPS implementation plans to carefully sequence changes. The change load is managed through the Gateway Management System, with twice yearly change ‘freezes’ introduced to provide staff with periods to consolidate knowledge.

HM Treasury

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18 Accepted

Our Future Probation Service' programme raises public safety concerns regarding reduced supervision.

Recommendation

Written evidence from the Prison Reform Trust raised concerns over potential risks to public safety from some of the proposed changes . In particular, they were concerned that reducing rehabilitative activity for lower-risk individuals, while necessary and pragmatic in the … Read more

Government Response Summary

The department delivers digital services in line with cross‑government technology standards. Tool deployment is overseen by operational governance, and a decision to roll out a service will only be made when it is confirmed that it is supported by effective communication and appropriate support models.

HM Treasury

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21 Accepted

HMPPS aims to close 3,150 probation staff shortfall through 25% capacity freeing measures.

Recommendation

In July 2025, HMPPS estimated that there would be a shortfall of 3,150 full- time equivalent probation staff in 2026–27, out of approximately 15,000 full-time equivalent sentence management staff required, even after its recruitment and prioritisation measures.44 Through its OFPS … Read more

Government Response Summary

HMPPS concluded its full review of all frontline probation work in March 2026, providing a baseline of workloads and an understanding of the workforce required to deliver policy expectations. Activity timings data is continuously updated to reflect every change to policy or process.

HM Treasury

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22 Accepted

HMPPS's 25% probation staff capacity freeing target lacks robust evidence and certainty.

Recommendation

We asked whether freeing up 25% of capacity will be sufficient to improve performance. HMPPS told us that this is its estimate of what is needed to bring the service back into balance by April 2027, and which will allow … Read more

Government Response Summary

HMPPS currently factors eight days of learning and development time into workforce modelling for qualified staff. Reducing workload demand through OFPS will have the additional benefit of ensuring capacity to undertake the eight days. HMPPS will continue to review changes to probation training requirements as part of work on OFPS and the independent sentencing review.

HM Treasury

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27 Accepted

Electronic monitoring expansion faces past performance issues with Serco, but improvements are now expected.

Recommendation

MoJ and HMPPS’s plans also involve a significant increase in the use of electronic monitoring. MoJ told us that the number of people on electronic monitoring has doubled in recent years, from around 10,000 people in 2020 to 26,600 in … Read more

Government Response Summary

MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee within six months of the Committee’s report to provide an update on Serco performance against its key performance indicators regarding the electronic monitoring service and fitting tags.

HM Treasury

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Conclusions (3)

Observations and findings

14 Conclusion Accepted

Persistent staff shortages mean that probation staff have been working at a level that is unsustainable for years.26 At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of HMPPS’s target staffing level - a shortfall of 1,479 probation officers. HMPPS’s data shows that probation officers, at …

Government Response Summary

HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.

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16 Conclusion Accepted

MoJ and HMPPS stated that they were focussing on improving staff retention as well as recruiting more staff. In the year ending March 2025, the leaving rate for probation staff was 9.3%, up from 6.2% in 2021, and sickness rate was 13.2 working days, up from 8.9 in 2021. Poor …

Government Response Summary

HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.

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17 Conclusion Accepted

MoJ told us that HMPPS’s ‘Our Future Probation Service’ programme is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address the root causes of the problems faced by the Probation Service, including shortfalls in staff.33 The programme will introduce new digital tools - over thirty digital initiatives are currently planned - to help reduce …

Government Response Summary

HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for national roll out by April 2026.

View Details →