Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 8
8
Acknowledged
Workforce shortages and high staff turnover remain key reasons for poor Probation Service performance.
Conclusion
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing workforce shortages and the resulting high workloads had undermined the quality of, and confidence in, the service.11 MoJ told us that the decline in performance is also linked to the increased complexity of cases.12 We challenged MoJ on why it had failed to address staff shortages sufficiently to date, given unification was almost five years ago. MoJ and HMPPS argued that they had been working hard to address the shortages by recruiting large numbers of staff. MoJ explained that overall staffing numbers had increased by 22% since 2021.13 However, despite this, the vacancy rate for probation officers had increased to 21% in March 2025, seven percentage points higher than in September 2021, when it was 14%.14
Government Response Summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
1.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 1.2 The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. 1.3 In year 1 (to March 2027), delivery will focus on implementing the Sentencing Act and the recommendations arising from the independent sentencing review to establish a sustainable delivery model. HMPPS is refining how it measures performance to provide clearer direction and ensure system-wide focus on the areas most strongly linked to public protection and reduced reoffending. A revised performance framework, centred on a smaller number of priority metrics, will be introduced in April 2026. Improvement plans for each priority metric will be embedded at national, regional and area levels, supported by clear trajectories to track progress over time. This tighter focus is expected to strengthen operational delivery, including more consistent risk management, improved completion of key activities, and stronger compliance with core operating standards. 1.4 In year 2 (to March 2028) focus will be on embedding these reforms and accelerating measurable improvements against the priority metrics set in year one. Through this period, HMPPS would expect to see further improvements in the quality and timeliness of court and community assessments, strengthening case supervision, and increasing workforce stability and probation officer availability. 1.5 In year 3 (to March 2029), the government expects the Probation Service to be positioned to achieve the full set of probation performance ambitions. 1.6 Progress will continue to be monitored through established performance governance mechanisms.