Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 12
12
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS failed to acknowledge link between poor probation performance and deteriorating outcomes.
Recommendation
HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision by a probation practitioner can significantly improve sentence completion rates and reduce reoffending.23 We asked MoJ about the extent to which poor probation performance has influenced worsening outcomes, including reoffending and recalls. HMPPS told us that that there was no evidence that probation staff were recalling people inappropriately, and the numbers had risen because of “the crisis in prisons”, as more people had been released from prison and were on probation, and probation had a higher-risk caseload. On reoffending it argued that other factors such as housing, employment, drugs treatment are all important. It told us that MoJ and HMPPS have been working with other partners, including the Department for Work and Pensions and businesses on employment support, and had made progress in all these areas. However, despite 20 Qq 2, 16 21 C&AG’s Report, para 1 22 Qq 20, 22; C&AG’s Report, para 1.7 23 C&AG’s Report, para 1.8 11 repeated probing, MoJ and HMPPS did not acknowledge any link between the poor performance of the Probation Service and deteriorating offender outcomes.24
Government Response Summary
The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
2.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 2.2 Work is underway to capture the data required to monitor the impact of changes to the probation service on key metrics. Work is also underway to develop a probation evaluation strategy for the changes being implemented later this year. 2.3 The department will continue to monitor reoffending and recall, and this will continue to be published via regular National Statistical publications in the usual way. The monitoring and evaluation plans being developed are considering how the department can better understand impacts on key outcomes such as these. However, as evidence to the hearing set out, it is very challenging to attribute changes in the reoffending measure to individual initiatives due to the large number of changes underway at a national level (due to the lack of a robust comparison group). 2.4 Evaluation of the changes introduced through ‘Reset’ will be published by July 2026 in line with standard Government Social Research publication protocols on GOV.UK.