Recommendations & Conclusions
16 items
2
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS do not know how probation performance affects outcomes such as reoffending. The overall aims of the Probation Service are to protect the public and to reduce reoffending. MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25. HM Inspectorate …
Government response. The government accepts, stating work is underway to capture data and develop an evaluation strategy to monitor the impact of Probation Service changes on reoffending and recall. Findings from the 'Reset' initiative evaluation, including recall rates, will be published by …
HM Treasury
3
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
Longstanding staff shortages have left probation staff dealing with excessive and unmanageable workloads. At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of target staffing. According to HMPPS’s data, probation officers have been working on average at 118% capacity for several years, with highs of 126% …
Government response. The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS aims to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with more details to staff in March/April 2026. They plan to manage change volume by sequencing implementations, using a Gateway Management System, and introducing twice-yearly …
HM Treasury
4
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
We are not confident that MoJ and HMPPS can successfully manage the risks associated with the new probation programme. Over an 18-month period, HMPPS’s new programme - Our Future Probation Service - aims to introduce new digital tools, changes to probation processes and changes to the level of supervision for …
Government response. The government accepts all recommendations. It will assess digital tools based on cross-government standards and support models, manage risk thresholds through established governance and OFPS Board scrutiny, and monitor breaches via fortnightly OFPS board meetings and escalation processes.
HM Treasury
5
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
We are not satisfied that HMPPS’s new programme will free up sufficient capacity to improve performance. HMPPS aims to close the current shortfall of 3,150 probation staff by March 2027, by freeing up operational capacity by 25% through its ‘Our Future Probation Service’ (OFPS) programme. However, we are sceptical that …
Government response. The government accepts the recommendations. HMPPS concluded a review of frontline work to understand staffing, will ensure capacity for 8 training days per staff member by reducing workloads through OFPS, and has contingency plans involving continuous monitoring and alternative options …
HM Treasury
6
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
Sufficient third sector and private sector capacity is required to meet offender needs, but decisions around funding are still unclear. HMPPS’s planned changes to the scope of the Probation Service will likely reduce probation supervision for many offenders assessed to be at lower risk of harm and reoffending. As highlighted …
Government response. The government accepts both recommendations, committing to write to the Committee within six months with an update on Serco's performance for electronic monitoring and tag fitting. They also commit to providing details on the future role of third and private …
HM Treasury
10
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
We asked MoJ whether it accepted responsibility for the poor performance of the service following unification. MoJ told us that it had started to see improvements in performance, particularly in relation to risk assessment and management. It said that this followed steps it had taken such as updating its performance …
Government response. The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced …
HM Treasury
12
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
HM Inspectorate of Probation’s 2023 research indicates that high-quality probation supervision by a probation practitioner can significantly improve sentence completion rates and reduce reoffending.23 We asked MoJ about the extent to which poor probation performance has influenced worsening outcomes, including reoffending and recalls. HMPPS told us that that there was …
Government response. The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.
HM Treasury
13
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
We asked MoJ whether it has evaluated the impact of prioritisation measures such as ‘Reset’ and ‘Impact’, on rehabilitation outcomes. It told us that it is hard to attribute changes in reoffending rates to particular schemes, and it is too early to look at the effect of ‘Impact’. However, it …
Government response. The department will capture data to monitor the impact of changes, develop a probation evaluation strategy, and continue to monitor and publish data on reoffending and recall. Evaluation of 'Reset' will be published by July 2026.
HM Treasury
14
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
Persistent staff shortages mean that probation staff have been working at a level that is unsustainable for years.26 At March 2025, there were 5,636 full-time equivalent probation officers in post, 79% of HMPPS’s target staffing level - a shortfall of 1,479 probation officers. HMPPS’s data shows that probation officers, at …
Government response. HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for …
HM Treasury
15
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
In addition to high caseloads, staff have also had to deal with a high level of change. In 2023–24, HMPPS estimated there were around 100 new national proposals to change probation processes—84% of which were business- as-usual changes, such as those required to meet ministerial commitments, and not linked to …
Government response. HMPPS recognises the significant volume of change that staff in probation face and will develop OFPS implementation plans to carefully sequence changes. The change load is managed through the Gateway Management System, with twice yearly change ‘freezes’ introduced to provide …
HM Treasury
16
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS stated that they were focussing on improving staff retention as well as recruiting more staff. In the year ending March 2025, the leaving rate for probation staff was 9.3%, up from 6.2% in 2021, and sickness rate was 13.2 working days, up from 8.9 in 2021. Poor …
Government response. HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for …
HM Treasury
17
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
MoJ told us that HMPPS’s ‘Our Future Probation Service’ programme is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address the root causes of the problems faced by the Probation Service, including shortfalls in staff.33 The programme will introduce new digital tools - over thirty digital initiatives are currently planned - to help reduce …
Government response. HMPPS is committed to addressing the high workloads faced by probation staff and has launched the "Our Future Probation Service Programme (OFPS)" with the primary objective to reduce workloads by 25% by April 2027, with Justice Transcribe on track for …
HM Treasury
18
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
Written evidence from the Prison Reform Trust raised concerns over potential risks to public safety from some of the proposed changes . In particular, they were concerned that reducing rehabilitative activity for lower-risk individuals, while necessary and pragmatic in the short term, could undermine long-term public safety and perpetuate cycles …
Government response. The department delivers digital services in line with cross‑government technology standards. Tool deployment is overseen by operational governance, and a decision to roll out a service will only be made when it is confirmed that it is supported by effective …
HM Treasury
21
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
In July 2025, HMPPS estimated that there would be a shortfall of 3,150 full- time equivalent probation staff in 2026–27, out of approximately 15,000 full-time equivalent sentence management staff required, even after its recruitment and prioritisation measures.44 Through its OFPS programme, HMPPS aims to free up operational capacity by 25% …
Government response. HMPPS concluded its full review of all frontline probation work in March 2026, providing a baseline of workloads and an understanding of the workforce required to deliver policy expectations. Activity timings data is continuously updated to reflect every change to …
HM Treasury
22
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
We asked whether freeing up 25% of capacity will be sufficient to improve performance. HMPPS told us that this is its estimate of what is needed to bring the service back into balance by April 2027, and which will allow staff to deliver a high-quality service.46 However, while its estimated …
Government response. HMPPS currently factors eight days of learning and development time into workforce modelling for qualified staff. Reducing workload demand through OFPS will have the additional benefit of ensuring capacity to undertake the eight days. HMPPS will continue to review changes …
HM Treasury
27
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Accepted
MoJ and HMPPS’s plans also involve a significant increase in the use of electronic monitoring. MoJ told us that the number of people on electronic monitoring has doubled in recent years, from around 10,000 people in 2020 to 26,600 in September 2025.61 It expects the number of people monitored to …
Government response. MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee within six months of the Committee’s report to provide an update on Serco performance against its key performance indicators regarding the electronic monitoring service and fitting tags.
HM Treasury