Recommendations & Conclusions
9 items
7
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months …
Read more
HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months post release for custodial sentences.8 HMPPS’s data show that the performance of its Probation Service has worsened since unification in 2021. In 2024–25, it only met seven of its 27 (26%) performance targets, a decrease of 24 percentage points since July 2021 to March 2022 when it met eight out of the 16 targets (50%) it had at that time. HM Inspectorate of Probation’s (HMIP’s) inspections also 5 C&AG’s Report, para 3.2 6 C&AG’s Report, para 3.7 7 Committee of Public Accounts, Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service Written Evidence 8 C&AG’s Report, para 1.9, Figures 4, 5 9 suggest a deterioration in quality. For example, in 2024, HMIP found that probation practitioners adequately assessed risk of harm in just 28% of cases, compared with 60% in 2018–19.9
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
8
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing …
Read more
We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing workforce shortages and the resulting high workloads had undermined the quality of, and confidence in, the service.11 MoJ told us that the decline in performance is also linked to the increased complexity of cases.12 We challenged MoJ on why it had failed to address staff shortages sufficiently to date, given unification was almost five years ago. MoJ and HMPPS argued that they had been working hard to address the shortages by recruiting large numbers of staff. MoJ explained that overall staffing numbers had increased by 22% since 2021.13 However, despite this, the vacancy rate for probation officers had increased to 21% in March 2025, seven percentage points higher than in September 2021, when it was 14%.14
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
9
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London and East of England.15 Despite this, HMPPS did not introduce …
Read more
HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London and East of England.15 Despite this, HMPPS did not introduce further prioritisation measures until its ‘Reset’ scheme in April 2024, and then its ‘Impact’ scheme in April 2025.16 HMPPS stressed that its Reset and Impact schemes, which involved reducing supervision for lower-risk individuals to allow probation officers to focus on higher-risk offenders, were aimed at improving performance.17 HMPPS explained that it took time for trainee probation officers to become fully qualified, but that the flow of new probation officers, coupled with ‘Reset’ and ‘Impact’, was starting to make a difference.18 It also pointed to its Our Future Probation Service programme, which it hopes will reduce workloads to a manageable level by March 2027.19 9 C&AG’s Report, para 5, Figure 5 10 Qq 3, 6 11 RPS002; RPS0003 12 Qq 3, 10 13 Qq 10–15, 37 14 C&AG’s Report, para 2.6 15 C&AG’s Report, paras 2.14–2.15 16 Qq 5, 28, 45, 64 17 Qq 22, 44, 45, 51; C&AG’s Report, para 2.16 18 Qq 35, 37,38 19 Qq 63, 80 10
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
11
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults …
Read more
MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults supervised by the Probation Service, either released from custody or starting a court order, was 36% for the cohorts supervised in July to September 2023 (latest data available), five percentage points higher than 31% for the cohorts supervised in April to June 2021. The average number of reoffences per reoffender also increased from 3.8 to 5.0 reoffences across the same period. There were 770 offenders charged with a Serious Further Offence while under probation in 2023–24, 55% more than in 2020–21. And the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall prison population was 13,583, accounting for 15% of the prison population, a 49% increase since June 2021.22
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced in April 2026. Progress will …
Read full response →
HM Treasury
19
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through successive structural changes and that it therefore needs to be …
Read more
Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through successive structural changes and that it therefore needs to be more careful than usual as it rolls out changes. It explained that changes including new digital tools would be introduced incrementally over the next 18-months and that it is not taking a “big-bang” approach.40 We asked HMPPS whether the OFPS programme was on track. It explained that there had been some movement from its original timetable as it has had to manage several uncertainties, including financial allocation decisions, which it had hoped would have been resolved at this point.41 We asked if some of this slippage was due to difficulties delivering digital change. HMPPS acknowledged that previous digital change programmes had not always gone as planned within MoJ, but explained that this had not been an issue for its current programme. It stressed that it is focused on ensuring that the digital aspects of the programme are not seen as digital projects but as business change initiatives that result in tools that staff see value in and can use.42
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government agrees with the Committee's recommendation and states it will adhere to cross-government standards relating to risk management and digital delivery with governance to ensure the risk profile of all digital, process and scope deliverables is scrutinised.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
20
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale of the challenge, it had to take bold measures and …
Read more
Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale of the challenge, it had to take bold measures and argued that having a high risk appetite did not mean that it would not be cautious during implementation. MoJ told us that the programme would have good governance arrangements, the programme board would follow government standards and it would not take inappropriate risks. However, neither MoJ nor HMPPS were able to explain to us what the “red lines” are, in terms of the level of risk they are willing to accept, to help monitor operational and public protection risks.43 38 Qq 22, 44–46, 51–54,56 39 RSP0002, RSP0003 40 Qq 56–59 41 Qq 60–61 42 Q 62 43 Qq 48–50 15 Closing the capacity gap
Show less
Government response AI summary
The government agrees to manage implementation risks through governance arrangements, escalating risks that can’t be mitigated. HMPPS uses secondary indicators, such as performance, staffing data, and staff surveys to monitor wider organisational health.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
23
Recommendation
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in place to address the 25% gap.50 It explained that, even …
Read more
It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in place to address the 25% gap.50 It explained that, even if the programme delivers on its objective, it still needs to close a residual staffing gap of 1,950 44 C&AG’s Report, para 13 45 Qq 63–65 46 Qq 65–7 47 Qq 87; C&AG’s Report, para 2.18 48 Qq 72–75; C&AG’s Report, para 3.16 49 Qq 67–71,78–79 50 Qq 60,61,67 16 staff through measures that it is still considering.51 HMPPS also confirmed that it had considered the impact on probation workload from the upcoming Sentencing Bill (a net 500 full-time equivalent increase in probation staff required) in its modelling.52 However, its modelling does not yet account for additional staff needed for other areas of probation, or for the impact of some wider policy changes, for example, the Independent Review of Criminal Courts, which is likely to create additional demands on probation staff.53 MoJ stated that it will need to keep evaluating the programme as it is rolled out, to make sure it is introducing the right measures.54 Electronic monitoring, third sector and private sector capacity
Show less
Government response AI summary
HMPPS is committed to meeting the OFPS target, monitored through ministerial meetings and governance arrangements. If a gap becomes apparent, alternative options will be explored, using a prioritisation framework for risk-based decisions.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
25
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are with not-for-profit organisations. HMPPS also stated that this indicates there …
Read more
We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are with not-for-profit organisations. HMPPS also stated that this indicates there is already the capacity in the sector and that it intends that the not-for-profit sector would continue to be a significant provider of its rehabilitative services. It also told us that it is in the process of re-procuring those contracts and in doing so, it is considering how to define these contracts differently to make them more resilient.58 51 Q 83 52 Q 64 53 C&AG’s Report, para 3.16 54 Qq 66–67 55 C&AG’s Report, Figure 12 56 RPS0006 57 Q 102; C&AG’s Report, para 17 58 Q 102 17
Show less
Government response AI summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on capacity in the third sector.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
26
Conclusion
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience…
Acknowledged
In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for third sector providers.59 We asked MoJ and HMPPS how much …
Read more
In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for third sector providers.59 We asked MoJ and HMPPS how much funding will be made available to ensure there is sufficient funding for rehabilitative services provided by third sector. They stated that there was additional policy work ongoing to further consider the role of the third sector, but did not clarify whether funding will be sufficient to meet demand. MoJ also clarified that its thinking on whether there are particular groups or individuals who might benefit from shorter probation and more support from third-sector providers is still at an early stage.60
Show less
Government response AI summary
MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on funding for third sector rehabilitative services.
Read full response →
HM Treasury