Select Committee · Public Accounts Committee

Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service

Status: Open Opened: 10 Jul 2025 15 recommendations 12 conclusions 1 report

Reforms of probation services were carried out in 2014, which divided the service into two – a National Probation Service, dealing with the most serious offenders, and twenty-one private sector-led Community Rehabilitation Companies, dealing with lower-risk offenders. These reforms were heavily criticised , and the service was reunified in 2021 with the aim of delivering …

Clear

Reports

1 report
Title HC No. Published Items Response
65th Report - Efficiency and resilience of the Probation Se… HC 1235 4 Feb 2026 27 Responded

Recommendations & Conclusions

9 items
7 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Probation Service performance has significantly worsened since 2021, failing most key targets.

HMPPS monitors performance against a range of targets to indicate whether the Probation Service is meeting its aims. Metrics for these targets measure activities at each stage of supervision against HMPPS’s target operating model, for example, the timeliness of appointments, and the proportion of individuals in employment at six months …

Government response. The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
8 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Workforce shortages and high staff turnover remain key reasons for poor Probation Service performance.

We pressed MoJ on why performance had worsened over the last few years. MoJ explained that workforce shortages, which it inherited upon unification, exacerbated by high staff turnover, were the main reason for poor performance.10 Written evidence from the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team and from Crest Advisory stressed that continuing …

Government response. The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
9 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Probation officer workloads remain excessively high despite prioritisation measures and new programmes.

HMPPS first introduced a prioritisation framework to help reduce staff workloads in 2022. But workloads remained high, in particular for probation officers, who were working at around 118% capacity on average, with highs of 126% in some regions including London and East of England.15 Despite this, HMPPS did not introduce …

Government response. The government agrees that the Probation Service should demonstrate improvements, focusing on implementing the Sentencing Act and independent sentencing review, establishing a sustainable delivery model, and introducing a revised performance framework by April 2026.
HM Treasury
11 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Offender outcomes like reoffending rates and prison recalls have significantly deteriorated since 2021.

MoJ estimates that the economic and social cost of reoffending by adult offenders was £20.9 billion in 2024–25.21 The Probation Service aims to reduce reoffending and protect the public. However, offender outcomes, such as reoffending rates, have deteriorated since unification of the service in 2021. The reoffending rate for adults …

Government response. The government expects the Probation Service to demonstrate measurable and sustained improvements in performance over the current spending review period, concluding in March 2029. Focus will be on implementing the Sentencing Act and a revised performance framework will be introduced …
HM Treasury
19 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Our Future Probation Service' programme faces concerns about further disruption and staff pressure.

Crest Advisory and the Rehabilitating Probation Project Team also highlighted concerns that the programme will cause further disruption to the service, exacerbating pressures on already over-stretched staff.39 HMPPS told us that it was conscious that the service had been through successive structural changes and that it therefore needs to be …

Government response. The government agrees with the Committee's recommendation and states it will adhere to cross-government standards relating to risk management and digital delivery with governance to ensure the risk profile of all digital, process and scope deliverables is scrutinised.
HM Treasury
20 Recommendation 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Ministry of Justice and HMPPS lack clear "red lines" for acceptable risks in probation reforms.

Given the importance of the programme for the future of probation services and the associated risks, we asked MoJ and HMPPS what progress they had made in setting clear risk thresholds for the programme. HMPPS explained that, given the scale of the challenge, it had to take bold measures and …

Government response. The government agrees to manage implementation risks through governance arrangements, escalating risks that can’t be mitigated. HMPPS uses secondary indicators, such as performance, staffing data, and staff surveys to monitor wider organisational health.
HM Treasury
23 Recommendation 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Significant uncertainties remain regarding achieving the 25% probation staff capacity reduction target.

It is not yet clear whether the 25% reduction in capacity can be achieved as planned, as HMPPS acknowledged that there remain many uncertainties within the programme, and that it does not yet have a full set of measures in place to address the 25% gap.50 It explained that, even …

Government response. HMPPS is committed to meeting the OFPS target, monitored through ministerial meetings and governance arrangements. If a gap becomes apparent, alternative options will be explored, using a prioritisation framework for risk-based decisions.
HM Treasury
25 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

HMPPS believes sufficient third-sector capacity exists for rehabilitative services with new contracts planned.

We asked HMPPS whether there is sufficient capacity in the third sector to provide this support. HMPPS said that it already has more than 100 contracts in place for its CRS across the country, about two thirds of which are with not-for-profit organisations. HMPPS also stated that this indicates there …

Government response. MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on capacity in the third sector.
HM Treasury
26 Conclusion 65th Report - Efficiency and resilience… Acknowledged

Funding allocation for third-sector rehabilitative services remains unclear despite increased probation investment.

In written evidence The Prison Reform Trust told us that it welcomed the government’s commitment to increase probation funding by up to £700 million by 2028–29, but raised concerns that it is not clear how much will be allocated for third sector providers.59 We asked MoJ and HMPPS how much …

Government response. MoJ and HMPPS will write to the Committee to provide an update on funding for third sector rehabilitative services.
HM Treasury

Oral evidence sessions

1 session
Date Witnesses
1 Dec 2025 Adam Bailey · Ministry of Justice, Dr Jo Farrar CB OBE · Ministry of Justice, James McEwen · Ministry of Justice, Jim Barton · HM Prisons and Probation Service, Kim Thornden-Edwards · HMPPS View ↗

Correspondence

2 letters
DateDirectionTitle
21 May 2026 From cttee Letter to the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Justice relating to Effici…
8 Jan 2026 To cttee Letter from the Chief Executive Officer at HM Prison & Probation Service relati…