Recommendations & Conclusions
18 items
2
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
MoJ’s and HMPPS’s plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 places by 2031 are still fraught with risk and uncertainty. MoJ and HMPPS acknowledge that they have not delivered prison places on time. We accept that they faced several challenges expanding the estate, such as dealing with environmental regulations and site–specific …
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MoJ’s and HMPPS’s plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 places by 2031 are still fraught with risk and uncertainty. MoJ and HMPPS acknowledge that they have not delivered prison places on time. We accept that they faced several challenges expanding the estate, such as dealing with environmental regulations and site–specific difficulties, but many of these were predictable and could have been managed more effectively with better planning. Furthermore, the difficulty and cost of remaining expansion projects is likely to increase, as HMPPS has already used sites where development is easiest. HMPPS must also re–tender many of its building 3 contracts as one of its major contractors, ISG, went into administration in September 2024. This may further increase delays. Given past issues, MoJ is proposing changes to how government approves planning permission for new prisons through the Crown Development Route; this is yet to come into effect and would bypass local planning committees entirely. HMPPS noted that there is contingency within its revised plans, but that planning permission for one of its new prisons remains uncertain due to an ongoing judicial review. recommendation In the Treasury Minute response, MoJ and HMPPS should outline what they are doing to assure themselves and Parliament that their plans are now realistic. The response should state how MoJ and HMPPS will manage risks and monitor the feasibility of their plans, particularly in relation to gaining required planning permission.
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees and outlined specific processes for assuring the realism of plans, including Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis and various monitoring forums. It also detailed plans to secure planning permission via the Crown Development Route (expected spring 2025) and develop a strategic approach to Nutrient …
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HM Treasury
3
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
Despite releasing thousands of prisoners early, MoJ forecasts it will run out of capacity again in early 2026. According to its central prison population forecast, MoJ will run out of places again in 2026, and be short of 5,400 prison places by November 2027. Consequently, HMPPS is entirely reliant on …
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Despite releasing thousands of prisoners early, MoJ forecasts it will run out of capacity again in early 2026. According to its central prison population forecast, MoJ will run out of places again in 2026, and be short of 5,400 prison places by November 2027. Consequently, HMPPS is entirely reliant on uncertain future demand reduction measures, which it hopes will come from the independent Sentencing Review, to prevent it from running out of places. It is also assuming it can introduce any required legislative changes very quickly. HMPPS’s future capacity position is worsened because it will not meet its deadline to make all cells fire safety compliant by 2027– approximately 23,000 cells did not meet safety standards at March 2024. It has committed to taking the cells that are not remediated by its 2027 deadline out of use. The condition of the estate also poses a risk to future capacity. MoJ received £520 million funding for maintenance over the next two years, but this is a small proportion of the £2.8 billion it estimates it needs to bring the estate into a fair condition, which would also require more headroom in the estate. Its current maintenance schedule has also been disrupted by the collapse of ISG. MoJ acknowledged that it is generally cheaper to maintain an existing cell than build a new one. It is also possible that the Independent Sentencing Review will recommend greater use of community sentencing rather than short prison sentences for relatively low–level offences. This may help reduce demand for prison places, but may also affect the amount of supervision and support required from probation services. 4 recommendation Alongside the Treasury Minute response, MoJ should produce a business case setting out steps to address the prison estate maintenance backlog much more rapidly, including any extra resources that would be required and its progress on re–tendering contracts for maintenance projects held by ISG. Once the next phase of the Sentencing Review
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees and commits that HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the Sentencing Review's next phase (spring 2025), detailing the impact on prison place shortage and mitigation, and reporting on the maintenance backlog, including fire safety improvements.
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HM Treasury
4
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
The prison capacity crisis has led to decisions and inefficiencies which represent poor value for money. Maintaining and making best use of the existing prison estate represents better value than building new places. However, capacity constraints mean that MoJ and HMPPS are unable to make cost–effective decisions. For example, HMPPS …
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The prison capacity crisis has led to decisions and inefficiencies which represent poor value for money. Maintaining and making best use of the existing prison estate represents better value than building new places. However, capacity constraints mean that MoJ and HMPPS are unable to make cost–effective decisions. For example, HMPPS needs cells to be empty to undertake essential maintenance work but it cannot do so when there is little flexibility in the system and cells have to be kept occupied constantly. Its maintenance backlog has doubled to £1.8 billion in the last four years and its Spending Review allocation of £220 million in 2024–25 is not sufficient to reverse this trend. MoJ also extended its lease at HMP Dartmoor despite the presence of radon gas, but has since had to close the prison due to high radon readings. HMPPS has paid additional costs to accelerate delivery at some sites, and its contingency measure to rent police cells overnight (Operation Safeguard) has cost £70 million to date. Efforts to reduce the Crown Court backlog are also being stymied as prisoner transport services are at full capacity and prisoners on remand are not necessarily housed at the prison closest to the relevant court, leading to inefficiency if prisoners do not attend hearings on time. Reception prisons are under particular pressure, and the remand population was at a record high of 17,711 in August 2024. 5 recommendation In its Treasury Minute response, MoJ should set out how it will estimate the costs to the Criminal Justice System caused by acute prison capacity pressures, in order to strengthen its strategic case for longer term planning and investment.
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Government response AI summary
The government states the recommendation is implemented, explaining that it already estimates Criminal Justice System costs due to prison capacity pressures through internal forecasting and modelling, and publicly released a 10-year capacity strategy on 11 December 2024 which included cost estimates.
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HM Treasury
6
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
MoJ’s and HMPPS’s main focus has been on managing the capacity crisis rather than rehabilitating offenders to reduce reoffending. In 2020, the previous Public Accounts Committee reported that HMPPS was operating hand to mouth by reacting to immediate crises. This remains the case. MoJ’s demand and supply forecasts assume high …
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MoJ’s and HMPPS’s main focus has been on managing the capacity crisis rather than rehabilitating offenders to reduce reoffending. In 2020, the previous Public Accounts Committee reported that HMPPS was operating hand to mouth by reacting to immediate crises. This remains the case. MoJ’s demand and supply forecasts assume high levels of crowding will continue, but it acknowledges this is detrimental for rehabilitative outcomes. Poor quality service delivery and a lack of purposeful activity within prisons is storing up problems for the future. According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society 6 approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices). Increasing prisoner numbers and potential changes to sentencing will also increase pressure on probation officers, who are already reducing supervision of medium and low risk offenders due to high workloads. In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target of 7,115, giving a staffing level of 76%. It estimates it will need to supervise around 20% more prison leavers by 2028 compared with December 2023. HMPPS acknowledges that the probation service cannot absorb additional demand without making further decisions on how it might focus its efforts. recommendation Once the next phase of the Sentencing Review is published in spring 2025, within two months, MoJ should write to the Committee setting out: a. how it plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prison, for example, by reducing crowding. b. what additional funding it requires to increase probation capacity and provision of community support, including substance misuse treatment. c. how it will evaluate the impacts of any future changes to probation and community sentencing on reoffending rates. This plan should include both a target and a timetable to reduce reoffending and set out a forecast reduction in demand for prison places over time if successfully implemented. 7 1 Del
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Government response AI summary
The government agrees to provide an update to the Committee after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report, outlining its plans to improve the rehabilitative environment, implications for probation and community support, and how impacts will be monitored and evaluated.
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HM Treasury
1
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
On the basis of a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, we took evidence from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) on their progress in expanding the prison estate.1
Government response AI summary
The government agreed with what it perceived as the committee's recommendation, committing to actively adapting processes for the 20,000 prison place programmes, capturing lessons learned quarterly, and reviewing its Lessons Learned Strategy bi-annually, with the next review in October 2025.
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HM Treasury
7
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
In 2021, MoJ had planned to deliver three of its new prisons by 2026, despite having no planning permission in place.18 It also told us it factored in just 26 weeks to gain approvals, even though sites were not earmarked in local plans.19 We challenged MoJ on whether it felt …
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In 2021, MoJ had planned to deliver three of its new prisons by 2026, despite having no planning permission in place.18 It also told us it factored in just 26 weeks to gain approvals, even though sites were not earmarked in local plans.19 We challenged MoJ on whether it felt its plans were over–ambitious and if it should have better anticipated planning delays.20 MoJ said that it did not regret making the commitment given the places were required.21 It argued that it was relying on ‘Project Speed’, a HM Treasury and Cabinet Office–led initiative, to streamline and speed–up planning approvals but that the project did not deliver.22 It also said that there were delays it could not have anticipated, for example where two sites were recommended for approval by the local planning official but were later rejected.23 MoJ conceded that with hindsight it would have been better not to have planned on the basis that Project Speed would be successful.24
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Government response AI summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
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HM Treasury
8
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
We asked HMPPS why the costs of its Rapid Deployment Cells (RDCs) had risen so significantly.25 HMPPS said that increases were due to three factors: design changes as it developed its understanding of what was needed; site–specific costs due to unforeseen issues such as asbestos; and nutrient neutrality regulations, which …
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We asked HMPPS why the costs of its Rapid Deployment Cells (RDCs) had risen so significantly.25 HMPPS said that increases were due to three factors: design changes as it developed its understanding of what was needed; site–specific costs due to unforeseen issues such as asbestos; and nutrient neutrality regulations, which require it to offset the impact of projects on the environment.26 We asked MoJ if it had a maximum price that it was willing to pay for a prison place.27 MoJ explained that, while there have been some instances where it had not progressed projects because of cost, there is no specific point at which it would regard a project as too expensive. It told us that decisions to progress projects depend on several factors such as how urgent the need for additional capacity is and how quickly places can be delivered.28 18 C&AG’s Report, para 1.15 19 Qq 23–27 20 Qq 11–13 21 Q 8 22 Q 13 23 Q 23 24 Qq 13–18 25 Q 30 26 Q 31 27 Qq 33,34 28 Q 34 10 Delivering the remaining 14,000 prison places
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Government response AI summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
9
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
In December 2024, MoJ published its 10–year capacity strategy which set out its plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 prison places by 2031.29 The majority of the remaining places will come from four new prisons (6,500) and additional houseblocks (6,400), with a further 1,100 from Rapid Deployment Cells and around …
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In December 2024, MoJ published its 10–year capacity strategy which set out its plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 prison places by 2031.29 The majority of the remaining places will come from four new prisons (6,500) and additional houseblocks (6,400), with a further 1,100 from Rapid Deployment Cells and around 1,150 places from refurbishments of cells.30 The strategy emphasised the continued need for prison places, stating, “we still project the prison population to increase by an average of 3,000 annually over the coming years”.31
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Government response AI summary
The government states the recommendation was implemented in April 2025 and refers to the re-baselining exercise, monthly monitoring meetings, and the use of the Crown Development Route for planning permission.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
10
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
We asked HMPPS whether it was certain that it could meet the revised deadline.32 HMPPS told us that while it could not give absolute assurance that it would deliver to schedule, it had built contingency into its timelines to allow for factors outside of its control. It explained that this …
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We asked HMPPS whether it was certain that it could meet the revised deadline.32 HMPPS told us that while it could not give absolute assurance that it would deliver to schedule, it had built contingency into its timelines to allow for factors outside of its control. It explained that this included an assessment of how likely things were to go to plan, using learning from other government projects, which allows it to build in more contingency where it identifies a higher level of risk.33 However, HMPPS also indicated that the remaining delivery sites carried more risk as it had started with sites it considered would be more straightforward.34
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Government response AI summary
The 20,000 prison place programmes undertook a robust re-baselining exercise between December 2023 and December 2024 using Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis alongside Reference Class Forecasting methodology.
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HM Treasury
11
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
HMPPS also acknowledged that while 95% of the remaining places had outline planning permission, permission for one of its new prisons, Garth, is currently under judicial review.35 MoJ and HMPPS explained that they are relying on proposed policy changes to how government approves planning permission through the Crown Development Route …
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HMPPS also acknowledged that while 95% of the remaining places had outline planning permission, permission for one of its new prisons, Garth, is currently under judicial review.35 MoJ and HMPPS explained that they are relying on proposed policy changes to how government approves planning permission through the Crown Development Route to avoid similar delays in the future. They told us that engaging with local communities remained important, but acknowledged that the changes would centralise decision– making, bypassing local planning committees.36
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Government response AI summary
The MoJ and HMPPS will seek to secure planning permission through the Crown Development Route, expected to come into force in spring 2025 where appropriate, and notes the revised National Planning Policy Framework places significant weight on new public service infrastructure.
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HM Treasury
12
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
HMPPS explained that the collapse of ISG, one of its main contractors which entered administration in September 2024, had been challenging, but that expected delays were already factored into its revised timelines.37 However, it noted that this was based on its assumptions about potential delays. It told us that ISG …
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HMPPS explained that the collapse of ISG, one of its main contractors which entered administration in September 2024, had been challenging, but that expected delays were already factored into its revised timelines.37 However, it noted that this was based on its assumptions about potential delays. It told us that ISG was contracted to deliver around 3,500 places of the 20,000 places portfolio across 13 projects and that it was in the process of 29 Ministry of Justice, 10-year Prison Capacity Strategy, December 2024, page 3 30 Ministry of Justice, 10-year Prison Capacity Strategy, December 2024, page 7 31 Ministry of Justice, 10-year Prison Capacity Strategy, December 2024, page 2 32 Q 29 33 Q 29 34 Q 32 35 Q 29 36 Qq 55–60 37 Q 43 11 retendering contracts as quickly as possible.38 It explained that while the collapse had affected its expansion plans, it was more exposed in terms of ongoing maintenance projects that ISG had been delivering.39 Future prison capacity
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Government response AI summary
The 20,000 prison place programmes undertook a robust re-baselining exercise between December 2023 and December 2024 using Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis alongside Reference Class Forecasting methodology.
Read full response →
HM Treasury
18
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
We asked MoJ if it has assessed the costs of needing to deliver prison places so urgently, such as paying contractors more to take on a higher level of risk.62 MoJ said it had not and indicated this could be difficult to disaggregate. It conceded that needing to do things …
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We asked MoJ if it has assessed the costs of needing to deliver prison places so urgently, such as paying contractors more to take on a higher level of risk.62 MoJ said it had not and indicated this could be difficult to disaggregate. It conceded that needing to do things quickly will likely cost more, but it also pointed to other factors which have increased costs such as inflation, which it said had meant delays have been more costly as prices increased.63 HMPPS explained that in some cases it paid to accelerate the delivery of projects, for example one of its new houseblocks, Rye Hill, so that it could be delivered several months earlier.64 It has also paid £70 million to date to house prisoners in police cells under Operation Safeguard to provide additional one–night contingency in the system.65
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Government response AI summary
The MoJ estimated costs to the Criminal Justice System through internal forecasting and modelling processes, including the additional costs as a result of the acute issues in responding to prison capacity. The MoJ will continue to monitor these costs and amend estimates where necessary.
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HM Treasury
20
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
HMPPS told us that operating at 99% occupancy creates inefficiencies in the estate and wider justice system. For example, it explained that prisoners often arrive in the wrong part of the estate or wrong part of the country. This means that prisoners often arrive late at night and it also …
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HMPPS told us that operating at 99% occupancy creates inefficiencies in the estate and wider justice system. For example, it explained that prisoners often arrive in the wrong part of the estate or wrong part of the country. This means that prisoners often arrive late at night and it also impacts HMPPS’s ability to get them to court on time the next day. It explained that this has a knock–on effect on the Crown Court backlog.68 HMPPS told us that 62 Q 38 63 Qq 38–40 64 Q 40 65 Q 92 66 C&AG’s Report, para 2.14 67 Qq 125–129 68 Q 66 14 reception prisons are under particular pressure, and the remand population was at a record high of 17,711 in August 2024. HMPPS explained that the increasing proportion of prisoners on remand makes it more difficult for HMPPS to use its estate most efficiently, as prisoners on remand need to stay near to the local court where their case will be heard.69 High occupancy levels also reduce HMPPS’s ability to carry out maintenance essential to keep prison places in use. We asked HMPPS what level of occupancy would allow it to operate an efficient estate. It told us that it would not want to be operating above 95% occupancy, but 90% would be ideal. It explained that this would provide staff with more time to, for example, assess prisoners, and that it would allow it to place prisoners in different areas of the country more efficiently.70 Impact of prison capacity crisis on safety and outcomes for prisoners
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Government response AI summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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HM Treasury
21
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
The adult male estate was operating at 98.0% to 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024, with many prisons severely overcrowded.71 HMPPS confirmed that around a quarter (23.6%) of prisoners are sharing cells designed for one person, often with an open toilet.72 The Howard League for Penal Reform provided …
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The adult male estate was operating at 98.0% to 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024, with many prisons severely overcrowded.71 HMPPS confirmed that around a quarter (23.6%) of prisoners are sharing cells designed for one person, often with an open toilet.72 The Howard League for Penal Reform provided written evidence which noted that overcrowding increases pressures in the prison environment, reducing prisoners’ wellbeing and leading to an increase in violence.73 This is reflected in increases in the rate of assaults, such as fights between prisoners which increased by 14%, and attacks on staff which increased by 19% in the year to September 2024.74
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Government response AI summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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HM Treasury
22
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
We asked HMPPS what it was doing to keep prisoners safe in the context of prisons being so overcrowded.75 It explained that it had introduced three “red lines” which it had stuck to rigidly. These included: keeping at least 1,500 cells that require fire maintenance out of use so that …
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We asked HMPPS what it was doing to keep prisoners safe in the context of prisons being so overcrowded.75 It explained that it had introduced three “red lines” which it had stuck to rigidly. These included: keeping at least 1,500 cells that require fire maintenance out of use so that it could continue with remediation work; only crowding cells where operational assessments had considered factors such as whether staffing and ancillary services will allow it to do so safely; and ensuring that cells were only in use if they were staffed to at least 75%.76 HMPPS explained that it was always trying to improve safety metrics, for example, by implementing airport–style security 69 Q 88 70 Q 68 71 C&AG’s Report, para 2.2 72 Q 68 73 PEC007 74 Ministry of Justice, Safety in Custody Statistics: quarterly update to September 2024 75 Q 66 76 Qq 66,69 15 to stop people bringing contraband into prisons, and helping staff or prisoners who are struggling. But it acknowledged that this was challenging even before it was running the estate at 99% occupancy.77
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Government response AI summary
HMPPS recognises the challenges that capacity pressures have on providing a safe environment. They have evaluated the impact of prisoners living in overcrowded prison cell conditions and monitor safety data and prison performance.
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HM Treasury
23
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
Several stakeholders provided written evidence on how crowding and capacity pressures are impacting health and drug treatment in prisons.78 For example, HM Inspectorate of Prisons (HMIP) noted that the strain at some reception prisons are under means that prisoners do not always receive the required health assessments or safety interviews. …
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Several stakeholders provided written evidence on how crowding and capacity pressures are impacting health and drug treatment in prisons.78 For example, HM Inspectorate of Prisons (HMIP) noted that the strain at some reception prisons are under means that prisoners do not always receive the required health assessments or safety interviews. It warned that this creates significant risks as many prisoners report feeling suicidal when they first arrive and have health problems, including drug and alcohol dependency.79
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Government response AI summary
Action is underway to improve delivery through the national regime model which mandates prisons to set out their planned delivery, against the agreed national priorities which for 2025-26 specifically asks prisons to focus on increasing the quantity and quality of purposeful and rehabilitative activity. A …
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HM Treasury
25
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
We asked MoJ what it had done to understand the impact of the crisis on prisoners and prisoner outcomes.82 MoJ said that the fact it had managed to continue running such a full estate was a testament to the huge efforts of its staff and those in the wider justice …
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We asked MoJ what it had done to understand the impact of the crisis on prisoners and prisoner outcomes.82 MoJ said that the fact it had managed to continue running such a full estate was a testament to the huge efforts of its staff and those in the wider justice system, who were dealing with increased workloads. While HMPPS told us it had done everything it could to get out of this position, it acknowledged that running the estate at full capacity inevitably impacts on prison regimes. It added that the crisis also significantly impacts victims of crime, as early release schemes used to manage capacity pressures are not what victims would want.83 77 Q 66 78 PEC0007, PEC0008, PEC0009 79 PEC0008 80 PEC0011 81 PEC008 82 Q 65 83 Q 65 16 Effective rehabilitation and reducing reoffending
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Government response AI summary
The government has mandated prisons to set out planned delivery against agreed national priorities, including increasing the quantity and quality of purposeful and rehabilitative activity, and is implementing a substantial evaluation programme to understand the impact of initiatives and programmes on reoffending outcomes.
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HM Treasury
26
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Accepted
According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices).84 Given MoJ’s and HMPPS’s acknowledgement that crowding impacts prison regimes and can reduce access to purposeful activity and harm rehabilitation, we asked MoJ what level of crowding it had factored …
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According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices).84 Given MoJ’s and HMPPS’s acknowledgement that crowding impacts prison regimes and can reduce access to purposeful activity and harm rehabilitation, we asked MoJ what level of crowding it had factored into its latest projections.85 It told us that its supply projections assume that around a quarter of the estate (23.6%) would continue to be crowded. However, it noted that this does not commit it to using crowding at this level in the future.86 MoJ was candid that given high occupancy levels, it had set the safety of its staff and prisoners as its priority, and accepted that this had reduced time available for resettlement activity and would therefore affect rehabilitation outcomes.87
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Government response AI summary
Action is underway to improve delivery through the national regime model, which mandates prisons to set out their planned delivery against the agreed national priorities and a substantial evaluation programme is underway to understand the impact of initiatives and programmes on reoffending outcomes.
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HM Treasury