Recommendations & Conclusions
5 items
14
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Deferred
MoJ confirmed that it is relying on the Government’s response to the sentencing review to help it manage the expected gap between capacity and demand.46 Given its forecasts suggest it could run out of places again in early 2026, we challenged MoJ on whether there would be sufficient time to …
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MoJ confirmed that it is relying on the Government’s response to the sentencing review to help it manage the expected gap between capacity and demand.46 Given its forecasts suggest it could run out of places again in early 2026, we challenged MoJ on whether there would be sufficient time to implement measures resulting from the review.47 It told us that it did not think the timeline was impossible. MoJ explained that timelines for the review had been considered with projected shortfalls in mind and it had been planning carefully for this.48 However, it stressed that the review is independent and it will have to ‘wait and see’ what the outcomes are.49
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Government response AI summary
HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the publication of the next phase of the Sentencing Review in spring 2025, detailing the impact on the forecast prison place shortage and any further mitigation required, as well as reporting on the maintenance backlog.
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HM Treasury
17
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Deferred
HMPPS told us that probation officers and probation services officers were already dealing with a workload equivalent to 102% of capacity.60 We raised the potential impact on probation services if the sentencing review recommends alternatives to custody, possibly requiring more support from the probation service. HMPPS commented that if more …
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HMPPS told us that probation officers and probation services officers were already dealing with a workload equivalent to 102% of capacity.60 We raised the potential impact on probation services if the sentencing review recommends alternatives to custody, possibly requiring more support from the probation service. HMPPS commented that if more people shift from short custody into probation this would need more support from probation officers. It told us that additional work could not be given to probation services without establishing what probation services would not be doing in future. It told us that “the lowest rung” of the probation caseload is those people who would only receive community sentence, not a prison sentence, and that there is no evidence that intensive supervision is very helpful for these people.61 50 C&AG’s Report, para 3.8 51 Q 134 52 Q 45 53 Q 44 54 C&AG’s Report, para 1.25 55 C&AG’s Report, para 1.24 56 C&AG’s Report, para 3.8 57 Q 47 58 Q 50 59 Qq 49–50 60 Q 118 61 Qq 119–121 13 2 Costs and impacts of the prison crisis Costs of the crisis
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Government response AI summary
HMPPS will provide an update within two months of the publication of the next phase of the Sentencing Review in spring 2025, detailing the impact on the forecast prison place shortage and any further mitigation required, as well as reporting on the maintenance backlog.
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HM Treasury
24
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Deferred
We also received evidence on how the crisis has impacted education and pre–release services. For example, the Prisoners’ Education Trust told us that overcrowding means education departments in prisons are unlikely to have the capacity needed, and prisoners are more likely to be moved at short notice, without their educational …
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We also received evidence on how the crisis has impacted education and pre–release services. For example, the Prisoners’ Education Trust told us that overcrowding means education departments in prisons are unlikely to have the capacity needed, and prisoners are more likely to be moved at short notice, without their educational needs being considered.80 HMIP noted that pressures were having an impact on preparing prisoners for release as they are less able to progress through the estate and are often placed far from their families, making it difficult to maintain relationships which are important to successful reintegration into the community.81
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Government response AI summary
The MoJ will provide an update to the Committee on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored and evaluated, two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its …
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HM Treasury
27
Conclusion
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Deferred
MoJ and HMPPS told us that the impact of the prison capacity crisis on probation is “significant” and “rising” with pressures likely to increase further if Ministers make decisions to decrease the prison population.88 In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target …
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MoJ and HMPPS told us that the impact of the prison capacity crisis on probation is “significant” and “rising” with pressures likely to increase further if Ministers make decisions to decrease the prison population.88 In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target of 7,115, giving a staffing level of 76%.89 It estimates it will need to supervise around 20% more prison leavers by 2028 compared with December 2023.90 HMPPS stressed that it is not just the Probation Service that is facing increased pressures from rising demand as other services that people need to access such as healthcare are also affected.91 It has since announced, in February 2025, that probation officers will focus more time on high risk offenders. The probation service has stated it will free up probation officer time to do so by intervening earlier with low risk offenders to understand the support they require and referring them to appropriate services.92
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Government response AI summary
The government will provide an update to the Committee two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored …
Read full response →
HM Treasury
28
Recommendation
15th Report - Prison estate capacity
Deferred
MoJ assured us that it models the impact of any demand and supply measures on staffing levels and has governance structures in place to ensure the system can cope with proposed changes.93 However, HMPPS 84 Ministry of Justice, Economic and social costs of reoffending - GOV.UK, July 2019 85 Qq …
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MoJ assured us that it models the impact of any demand and supply measures on staffing levels and has governance structures in place to ensure the system can cope with proposed changes.93 However, HMPPS 84 Ministry of Justice, Economic and social costs of reoffending - GOV.UK, July 2019 85 Qq 65, 72, 81 86 Qq 72–75 87 Qq 65–66 88 Q 99 89 Ministry of Justice, Annual Statement on Prison Capacity: 2024, December 2024, page 9 90 C&AG’s Report, para 3.9 91 Q 99 92 Ministry of Justice, probation press release, 12 February 2025 93 Q 100 17 acknowledged that if decisions from the sentencing review lead to increased volumes of offenders under the Probation Service, it will need to look at how it will prioritise work due to the strain the system is already under.94 94 Q 100 18
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Government response AI summary
The government will provide an update to the Committee two months after the Independent Sentence Review publishes its final report on plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prisons, the implications for probation and community support, and how the impact of changes will be monitored …
Read full response →
HM Treasury