Conclusion 6

MoJ’s and HMPPS’s main focus has been on managing the capacity crisis rather than rehabilitating offenders to reduce reoffending. In 2020, the previous Public Accounts Committee reported that HMPPS was operating hand to mouth by reacting to immediate crises. This remains the case. MoJ’s demand and supply forecasts assume high levels of crowding will continue, but it acknowledges this is detrimental for rehabilitative outcomes. Poor quality service delivery and a lack of purposeful activity within prisons is storing up problems for the future. According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society 6 approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices). Increasing prisoner numbers and potential changes to sentencing will also increase pressure on probation officers, who are already reducing supervision of medium and low risk offenders due to high workloads. In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target of 7,115, giving a staffing level of 76%. It estimates it will need to supervise around 20% more prison leavers by 2028 compared with December 2023. HMPPS acknowledges that the probation service cannot absorb additional demand without making further decisions on how it might focus its efforts. recommendation Once the next phase of the Sentencing Review is published in spring 2025, within two months, MoJ should write to the Committee setting out: a. how it plans to improve the rehabilitative environment in prison, for example, by reducing crowding. b. what additional funding it requires to increase probation capacity and provision of community support, including substance misuse treatment. c. how it will evaluate the impacts of any future changes to probation and community sentencing on reoffending rates. This plan should include both a target and a timetable to reduce reoffending and set out a forecast reduction in demand for prison places over time if successfully implemented. 7 1 Del