Recommendation 26

According to MoJ’s most recent estimate, reoffending in England and Wales costs society approximately £18 billion a year (2017–2018 prices).84 Given MoJ’s and HMPPS’s acknowledgement that crowding impacts prison regimes and can reduce access to purposeful activity and harm rehabilitation, we asked MoJ what level of crowding it had factored into its latest projections.85 It told us that its supply projections assume that around a quarter of the estate (23.6%) would continue to be crowded. However, it noted that this does not commit it to using crowding at this level in the future.86 MoJ was candid that given high occupancy levels, it had set the safety of its staff and prisoners as its priority, and accepted that this had reduced time available for resettlement activity and would therefore affect rehabilitation outcomes.87