Conclusion 2

MoJ’s and HMPPS’s plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 places by 2031 are still fraught with risk and uncertainty. MoJ and HMPPS acknowledge that they have not delivered prison places on time. We accept that they faced several challenges expanding the estate, such as dealing with environmental regulations and site–specific difficulties, but many of these were predictable and could have been managed more effectively with better planning. Furthermore, the difficulty and cost of remaining expansion projects is likely to increase, as HMPPS has already used sites where development is easiest. HMPPS must also re–tender many of its building 3 contracts as one of its major contractors, ISG, went into administration in September 2024. This may further increase delays. Given past issues, MoJ is proposing changes to how government approves planning permission for new prisons through the Crown Development Route; this is yet to come into effect and would bypass local planning committees entirely. HMPPS noted that there is contingency within its revised plans, but that planning permission for one of its new prisons remains uncertain due to an ongoing judicial review. recommendation In the Treasury Minute response, MoJ and HMPPS should outline what they are doing to assure themselves and Parliament that their plans are now realistic. The response should state how MoJ and HMPPS will manage risks and monitor the feasibility of their plans, particularly in relation to gaining required planning permission.