Recommendation 27

MoJ and HMPPS told us that the impact of the prison capacity crisis on probation is “significant” and “rising” with pressures likely to increase further if Ministers make decisions to decrease the prison population.88 In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target of 7,115, giving a staffing level of 76%.89 It estimates it will need to supervise around 20% more prison leavers by 2028 compared with December 2023.90 HMPPS stressed that it is not just the Probation Service that is facing increased pressures from rising demand as other services that people need to access such as healthcare are also affected.91 It has since announced, in February 2025, that probation officers will focus more time on high risk offenders. The probation service has stated it will free up probation officer time to do so by intervening earlier with low risk offenders to understand the support they require and referring them to appropriate services.92