Recommendations & Conclusions
10 items
2
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department’s evaluations show that Universal Credit is having a positive impact on the labour market, but these have assessed only the short-term impact on claimants. The Department’s studies have evaluated the short-term impact for individuals who made a claim for Universal Credit in 2018 or earlier. The findings include …
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The Department’s evaluations show that Universal Credit is having a positive impact on the labour market, but these have assessed only the short-term impact on claimants. The Department’s studies have evaluated the short-term impact for individuals who made a claim for Universal Credit in 2018 or earlier. The findings include that single people are two percentage points more likely to have been in employment at any point in the six months after starting their Universal Credit claim than new Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants; and single parents are five percentage points more likely to have been in work within six months of making a new Universal Credit claim compared with being on legacy benefits. The Department says that any diminishing impact for individuals beyond the six-month period is offset by more people being in work in subsequent cohorts of claimants, and it is therefore confident that Universal Credit is having a sustained and long-term impact on the labour market. We note, however, the Department does not know whether individual claimants remained in employment beyond the period covered by the evaluations and does not know anything about the nature of the jobs they took. 6 Progress in implementing Universal Credit Recommendation 2: The Department should regularly track the outcomes of Universal Credit claimants, which could involve a longitudinal study, including what kinds of employment they take up and for how long, as well as their earnings and hours, and publish the results at regular intervals of at least once every twelve months.
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the recommendation, stating that tracking specific employment outcomes and duration for Universal Credit claimants was not an objective and would not provide the necessary insight into the program's impact.
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HM Treasury
6
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department has not explained clearly how transitional protection works so benefit claimants, and the organisations that advise them, do not fully understand how amounts are calculated. The Department provides ‘transitional protection’ designed to ensure people are not worse off on Universal Credit at the point of moving. It tops …
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The Department has not explained clearly how transitional protection works so benefit claimants, and the organisations that advise them, do not fully understand how amounts are calculated. The Department provides ‘transitional protection’ designed to ensure people are not worse off on Universal Credit at the point of moving. It tops up a claimant’s Universal Credit entitlement where it is lower than the legacy benefit being replaced. However, organisations who work with benefit claimants are concerned about transitional protection, in particular about how the Department calculates amounts that are due, how accurate its calculations are, and the risk that people are receiving incorrect payments which they cannot check themselves. The Department acknowledges that transitional protection is complex and difficult to explain. It has produced a guide for stakeholders and wants to turn that into something that is more understandable for people who are not welfare advice experts. Recommendation 6: The Department should explain better in its guidance and the migration notices it sends to claimants how transitional protection is calculated, using simple language and examples based on real cases.
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees, stating that migration notices are designed to focus on necessary actions, and that claimants do not want them to convey detailed explanations of transitional protection calculations. It notes a technical guide exists for advisors and is considering other general information.
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HM Treasury
8
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department has some evidence to indicate that UC is having a positive impact on the labour market based on its evaluations of the short-term impact. Its first four evaluations covered single claimants without children – the most recent of these, based on data from 2018, found new UC claimants …
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The Department has some evidence to indicate that UC is having a positive impact on the labour market based on its evaluations of the short-term impact. Its first four evaluations covered single claimants without children – the most recent of these, based on data from 2018, found new UC claimants were two percentage points more likely to have been in employment at any point in the six months after starting their claim than new Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants. In February 2024, the Department completed a fifth 7 C&AG’s Report, paras 9, 1.6, 1.7 8 Qq 1, 33; C&AG’s Report, para 1.17 9 Committee of Public Accounts, Universal Credit, Sixty-Fourth Report of Session 2017–19, HC 1183, 26 October 2018 10 C&AG’s Report, Figure 1 11 Qq 1–2, 4; C&AG’s Report, para 1.14 and Figure 6 12 Qq 1, 5 13 Qq 1–3; C&AG’s Report, para 1.29, Figure 7 Progress in implementing Universal Credit 11 evaluation, also based on data from 2018, which found single parents were five percentage points more likely to have been in work within six months of making a new UC claim compared with being on legacy benefits.14
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the implied recommendation to track job types and duration for UC claimants, stating it was not a program objective and would not provide the desired insights for evaluating Universal Credit's impact.
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HM Treasury
9
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
We asked how the Department’s evaluations of whether UC is more likely to get people into work compared with legacy benefits enabled it to estimate how much people contributed to the economy.15 The Department said it was now difficult to compare the labour market impact of UC with legacy benefits, …
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We asked how the Department’s evaluations of whether UC is more likely to get people into work compared with legacy benefits enabled it to estimate how much people contributed to the economy.15 The Department said it was now difficult to compare the labour market impact of UC with legacy benefits, as it had closed legacy benefits to new claims so there was no counterfactual.16 It asserted that it could use the findings from its evaluation of the impact of UC on lone parents to derive the figure of 200,000 extra entrants to the labour market set out in the UC business case. Specifically, it said that there would be eight million people on UC when it was fully rolled out, maybe half of whom would be in work; applying the impact of five percentage points to four million people would produce a figure of 200,000.17 We note, however, that in making this argument the Department chose to use the most positive of its evaluation findings and made a number of other assumptions.
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the implicit recommendation regarding its evaluation methodology and economic contribution estimates, stating that tracking specific claimant types was not an objective and would not provide valuable insights for the business case. It affirms its commitment to understanding labour market effects through existing …
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HM Treasury
11
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department’s evaluations have considered only the short-term impact of UC on the labour market.19 We asked about the longer-term impact on claimants’ employment status, beyond the six months after they started their claims. The Department acknowledged that it had measured the effects of UC on individuals only in the …
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The Department’s evaluations have considered only the short-term impact of UC on the labour market.19 We asked about the longer-term impact on claimants’ employment status, beyond the six months after they started their claims. The Department acknowledged that it had measured the effects of UC on individuals only in the short term, but argued that this did not mean that UC does not have a sustained and long-term impact on the labour market. It referred to a ‘cohorting effect’, whereby any decreasing impact for individuals over time is offset by more people in subsequent cohorts of claimants being in work.20
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the implicit recommendation to track long-term individual employment impacts, stating it was not an objective of the UC programme and such tracking would not provide valuable insight for business case benefits. It asserts that current monitoring and evaluation programmes are sufficient.
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HM Treasury
12
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
We also asked the Department about the types of jobs people took up after claiming UC and whether the jobs were secure. The Department told us that its evaluations showed only whether claimants were more likely to be in employment. It added that its first evaluation did consider the levels …
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We also asked the Department about the types of jobs people took up after claiming UC and whether the jobs were secure. The Department told us that its evaluations showed only whether claimants were more likely to be in employment. It added that its first evaluation did consider the levels of earnings that people had, and that in principle it was possible to track the earnings and hours in work of claimants who were now in employment.21 14 C&AG’s Report, para 11 15 Q 33 16 Qq 1, 4; C&AG’s Report, para 1.20 17 Q 1 18 Q 4 19 C&AG’s Report, para 11 20 Q 6 21 Qq 34–35 12 Progress in implementing Universal Credit Reducing fraud and error
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the implied recommendation to track job types and duration for UC claimants, stating it was not a program objective and would not provide the desired insights for evaluating Universal Credit's impact.
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HM Treasury
29
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department provides financial support to claimants it moves under the managed migration process, known as ‘transitional protection’, to make sure they are not worse off on UC at the point of moving than they were on legacy benefits. The Department calculates a claimant’s UC entitlement and then adds a …
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The Department provides financial support to claimants it moves under the managed migration process, known as ‘transitional protection’, to make sure they are not worse off on UC at the point of moving than they were on legacy benefits. The Department calculates a claimant’s UC entitlement and then adds a top-up amount (called the ‘transitional element’) equivalent to the difference between this entitlement and the value of the legacy benefits being replaced. The Department expects to provide over 330,000 (38%) of the households it moves to UC through the current migration process with transitional protection, at an estimated cost of £1.2 billion up to the end of March 2027.61
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Government response AI summary
The government disagrees with the implied recommendation, stating the Universal Credit Migration Notice has been rigorously tested and that feedback suggests claimants prefer the notice to focus on required actions rather than other messages.
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HM Treasury
30
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
In written evidence, organisations who work with benefit claimants raised concerns about how the transitional protection arrangements were working, specifically about how the Department calculated amounts due, how accurate its calculations were, and the risk that people were receiving incorrect payments which they could not check themselves due to a …
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In written evidence, organisations who work with benefit claimants raised concerns about how the transitional protection arrangements were working, specifically about how the Department calculated amounts due, how accurate its calculations were, and the risk that people were receiving incorrect payments which they could not check themselves due to a lack of transparency. Citizens Advice, for example, said that it had helped 1,500 people with issues around transitional protection in 2023, but that uncertainty around how the transitional element was calculated had impacted the advice it had been able to 57 Qq 81–82 58 Q 83 59 PUC0002 60 PUC0005 61 C&AG’s Report, paras 2.22–2.23 Progress in implementing Universal Credit 17 provide.62 The Housing Systems told us that it had found the Department’s approach to calculating the transitional element to be inconsistent and that it had seen examples of amounts being calculated incorrectly.63
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the implied recommendation to address concerns about transitional protection transparency, stating the Migration Notice is effective and claimants prefer it concise. It notes a technical guide for advisors exists and is considering what other general information might be provided.
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HM Treasury
31
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
We asked the Department what it was doing to help vulnerable individuals understand the transitional protection arrangements. The Department told us that during its testing phase it had found that claimants struggled to understand how transitional protection worked – it was a simple concept but a complex policy to explain. …
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We asked the Department what it was doing to help vulnerable individuals understand the transitional protection arrangements. The Department told us that during its testing phase it had found that claimants struggled to understand how transitional protection worked – it was a simple concept but a complex policy to explain. It said that stakeholders had asked if it could produce a guide on complex cases and it had worked with them to do that. It was now trying to turn the guide into a publication that non-welfare advice experts could understand.64
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the implicit recommendation to improve vulnerable claimants' understanding of transitional protection, stating the Migration Notice is effective and claimants prefer it concise. It notes a technical guide for advisors exists and is considering what other general information might be provided.
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HM Treasury
32
Conclusion
Twenty-Ninth Report - Progress in imple…
Rejected
The Department also told us that it had automated much of the transitional protection process so that calculations were done on the system by a tested algorithm, but the system relied on the right information being input. It highlighted that it informed claimants how much of their UC award was …
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The Department also told us that it had automated much of the transitional protection process so that calculations were done on the system by a tested algorithm, but the system relied on the right information being input. It highlighted that it informed claimants how much of their UC award was the transitional element but did not provide all the transitional protection rules because it did not think it would help claimants to understand how the amount had been calculated. If people were not happy with the calculation, they could ask the Department about it or seek advice from a welfare rights organisation. The Department said that it was not picking up many incorrect cases but, where calculations were wrong, the mistakes were caused by it being told, and inputting, incorrect data.65 62 PUC0004 63 PUC0006 64 Q 77 65 Q 77 18 Progress in implementing Universal Credit 3 Moving Employment and Support Allowance claimants to Universal Credit
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Government response AI summary
The government rejects the implied recommendation to provide more detailed transitional protection rules to claimants, stating the Migration Notice is effective and claimants prefer it concise. It notes a technical guide for advisors exists and is considering what other general information might be provided.
Read full response →
HM Treasury