Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 11
11
DWP evaluations assess Universal Credit's short-term labour market impact, not long-term individual effects
Conclusion
The Department’s evaluations have considered only the short-term impact of UC on the labour market.19 We asked about the longer-term impact on claimants’ employment status, beyond the six months after they started their claims. The Department acknowledged that it had measured the effects of UC on individuals only in the short term, but argued that this did not mean that UC does not have a sustained and long-term impact on the labour market. It referred to a ‘cohorting effect’, whereby any decreasing impact for individuals over time is offset by more people in subsequent cohorts of claimants being in work.20
Government Response
A response document is linked to this report, dated 11 July 2025. Response attribution to this conclusion has not been verified. Read the response document ↗