Future Aviation Capabilities

We welcome the establishment of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which will be one of the UK’s most significant defence programmes over the next decade and beyond. If delivered as planned, GCAP will enable the UK to retain national sovereignty in combat air, providing a vital military capability in an increasingly volatile world. We also recognise the opportunities the programme brings to deepen the UK’s relationships with its allies and to shore up defence industrial capacity. (Conclusion, Paragraph 13) Structures and partnerships

The Committee’s visits to Japan and Italy inspired great confidence in the commitment and capabilities of both our international partners. In particular, recognising that involvement in GCAP entails a significant step both politically and militarily for Japan, the Committee was impressed by the depth of the Japanese offer and the technical progress they have made to date. (Conclusion, Paragraph 15)

An open-minded but cautious approach should be taken to including new international partners within GCAP. The potential benefits will need to be weighed carefully against the risks, with any proposed partnering opportunity carefully assessed on its own merits. Any additional partnering arrangements that could jeopardise the 2035 in-service date should not be contemplated. (Recommendation, Paragraph 21)

Given the ambitious timescales for GCAP, its delivery structures at the Governmental and industrial levels will need to be sufficiently empowered to take timely and binding decisions as the programme progresses. A repeat of the structural failings which contributed to unnecessary delay and cost on the Eurofighter Typhoon would place the programme in jeopardy. We are encouraged that this imperative has been recognised by both the MOD and industry. It was clear from our visit to Italy that they, having also 29 experienced the delays that had been caused on Typhoon, had drawn the same conclusions—and meeting the 2035 target date is critical for Japan. This early commitment to empowering GCAP’s delivery organisations must be sustained throughout the programme’s development if it is to succeed. (Conclusion, Paragraph 29)

We support an element of flexibility in workshare arrangements for GCAP, whilst also recognising the need for all three nations involved to be, and be seen to be, equal partners over the course of the programme. (Conclusion, Paragraph 36)

Care must be taken to ensure that any flexibility around workshare is exercised within a clearly defined framework to avoid unnecessarily reopening negotiations and introducing delay. (Recommendation, Paragraph 37) Affordability

With the defence budget under increasing pressure, it is incumbent on both Government and industry to keep tight control of costs as GCAP progresses. As more detailed information on programme costs becomes available, it must be made available to Parliament and the public in a timely and transparent manner to enable effective scrutiny. The Government should consider providing a multi-year funding arrangement to put the programme on a secure footing and provide international partners with confidence in the UK’s ongoing commitment. (Recommendation, Paragraph 47)

If political and public support for GCAP is to be maintained, it is essential that the Government not only makes the case for its necessity as a military capability, but also promotes the broader economic benefits that it will bring. (Recommendation, Paragraph 48)

The Committee was greatly encouraged by Japan’s recognition of the importance of exports to their GCAP partners. Nonetheless, Japan’s inexperience as a defence exporter is likely to present unique challenges for GCAP which were not in evidence for Typhoon. The UK government must continue to support and encourage Japan in making the necessary legislative and industrial progress to ensure that the new GCAP fighter can be successfully exported. (Recommendation, Paragraph 56) Capability

Our recent report on Developing AI Expertise and Capacity in UK Defence examined some of the challenges and opportunities presented by the use of artificial intelligence in defence. These are not exclusive to the air domain, 30 but they will need to be carefully managed as GCAP progresses. The Government must ensure that GCAP is future proofed so that it can not only accommodate advances in our own AI capabilities, but also counter those of our adversaries. (Recommendation, Paragraph 67)

There are many unresolved questions about how best to harness Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACPs) alongside the existing and future combat fleet, with the development of advanced uncrewed platforms in particular requiring significant further work. Given these uncertainties it is essential that sufficient flexibility is built into GCAP to allow for the main aircraft to operate alongside a range of future uncrewed solutions. (Recommendation, Paragraph 74) Training

The Hawk trainer aircraft has been a UK defence export success story, but with domestic production lines closing four years ago the skills and manufacturing capacity which had built up over decades will prove challenging and costly to regenerate. We recognise that innovative training solutions, including modular aircraft and synthetics, may offer new opportunities for industry; but we find the failure to capitalise on the success of Hawk remarkably short-sighted and deeply regrettable. (Conclusion, Paragraph 82) Workforce and industrial capacity

Building and maintaining a skilled workforce will be crucial to GCAP’s success. With the defence industry facing fierce competition from other sectors for skilled workers, it is essential that a holistic approach is taken to recruitment and retention. GCAP offers a welcome opportunity to attract new talent into the UK’s combat air industry, but the focus cannot just be on the recruitment of new apprentices into industry primes. (Conclusion, Paragraph 91)

Retention of the existing Typhoon manufacturing workforce, made more challenging by dwindling production runs and the gap until full-scale production of Tempest is underway, must be a priority; and securing further Typhoon export orders to ensure a consistent pipeline of production will be critical to achieving this goal. (Recommendation, Paragraph 92) 31

Whilst progress to date has been positive, previous multilateral defence programmes have frequently seen costs spiral and delays pile up and GCAP will have to break the mould if it is to achieve its ambitious target date. Decisions made at this early stage around partnerships, delivery structures and workshare by both Government and industry will be key to ensuring the aircraft arrives on time and to budget; and the importance of recruiting and retaining a suitably skilled workforce cannot be understated. The recommendations in this report are intended to help ensure that GCAP’s potential is fully realised. We will continue to provide robust scrutiny of the programme as it proceeds. (Conclusion, Paragraph 94) 32