15th Report - Prison estate capacity

MoJ confirmed that it is relying on the Government’s response to the sentencing review to help it manage the expected gap between capacity and demand.46 Given its forecasts suggest it could run out of places again in early 2026, we … Read more MoJ confirmed that it is relying on the Government’s response to the sentencing review to help it manage the expected gap between capacity and demand.46 Given its forecasts suggest it could run out of places again in early 2026, we challenged MoJ on whether there would be sufficient time to implement measures resulting from the review.47 It told us that it did not think the timeline was impossible. MoJ explained that timelines for the review had been considered with projected shortfalls in mind and it had been planning carefully for this.48 However, it stressed that the review is independent and it will have to ‘wait and see’ what the outcomes are.49 Show less

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HMPPS told us that probation officers and probation services officers were already dealing with a workload equivalent to 102% of capacity.60 We raised the potential impact on probation services if the sentencing review recommends alternatives to custody, possibly requiring more … Read more HMPPS told us that probation officers and probation services officers were already dealing with a workload equivalent to 102% of capacity.60 We raised the potential impact on probation services if the sentencing review recommends alternatives to custody, possibly requiring more support from the probation service. HMPPS commented that if more people shift from short custody into probation this would need more support from probation officers. It told us that additional work could not be given to probation services without establishing what probation services would not be doing in future. It told us that “the lowest rung” of the probation caseload is those people who would only receive community sentence, not a prison sentence, and that there is no evidence that intensive supervision is very helpful for these people.61 50 C&AG’s Report, para 3.8 51 Q 134 52 Q 45 53 Q 44 54 C&AG’s Report, para 1.25 55 C&AG’s Report, para 1.24 56 C&AG’s Report, para 3.8 57 Q 47 58 Q 50 59 Qq 49–50 60 Q 118 61 Qq 119–121 13 2 Costs and impacts of the prison crisis Costs of the crisis Show less

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We also received evidence on how the crisis has impacted education and pre–release services. For example, the Prisoners’ Education Trust told us that overcrowding means education departments in prisons are unlikely to have the capacity needed, and prisoners are more … Read more We also received evidence on how the crisis has impacted education and pre–release services. For example, the Prisoners’ Education Trust told us that overcrowding means education departments in prisons are unlikely to have the capacity needed, and prisoners are more likely to be moved at short notice, without their educational needs being considered.80 HMIP noted that pressures were having an impact on preparing prisoners for release as they are less able to progress through the estate and are often placed far from their families, making it difficult to maintain relationships which are important to successful reintegration into the community.81 Show less

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MoJ assured us that it models the impact of any demand and supply measures on staffing levels and has governance structures in place to ensure the system can cope with proposed changes.93 However, HMPPS 84 Ministry of Justice, Economic and … Read more MoJ assured us that it models the impact of any demand and supply measures on staffing levels and has governance structures in place to ensure the system can cope with proposed changes.93 However, HMPPS 84 Ministry of Justice, Economic and social costs of reoffending - GOV.UK, July 2019 85 Qq 65, 72, 81 86 Qq 72–75 87 Qq 65–66 88 Q 99 89 Ministry of Justice, Annual Statement on Prison Capacity: 2024, December 2024, page 9 90 C&AG’s Report, para 3.9 91 Q 99 92 Ministry of Justice, probation press release, 12 February 2025 93 Q 100 17 acknowledged that if decisions from the sentencing review lead to increased volumes of offenders under the Probation Service, it will need to look at how it will prioritise work due to the strain the system is already under.94 94 Q 100 18 Show less

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MoJ and HMPPS told us that the impact of the prison capacity crisis on probation is “significant” and “rising” with pressures likely to increase further if Ministers make decisions to decrease the prison population.88 In September 2024, HMPPS had 5,413 full time equivalent probation officers in post against a target …

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