Conclusion 142

However, the operational challenges and cost of transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Russia, remain high (see paragraph 202). Mr Lanteigne cautioned that it was important to distinguish between “the rhetoric, the very high-level conversations between leaders, and what is actually happening, especially on a company-to-company level”. 159 For example, the scale of transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route has been modest to date, not exceeding 25 vessels in any single year. 160 Moreover, Chinese companies are wary of exposure to Western sanctions—in 2022 there were no transits at all through the Northern Sea Route. 161 Mr Lateigne explained: “The main shipping concern in China, COSCO, has in essence said that it is not going to be using the Northern Sea Route for the time being under current geopolitical circumstances.” 162