Recommendation 101

We heard that in the medium term, there is a strong likelihood that Russia will respond to NATO enlargement with increased military build-up in the Arctic. Prof Zysk told us that NATO enlargement will unavoidably increase Russia’s sense of vulnerability: “In general, the many unintended consequences of the Russian assault on Ukraine have profoundly reshaped Arctic security and co-operation and governance regimes in the region—also for Russia. It has heightened the role of the Arctic as an arena of confrontation between Russia and the West, again stimulating the Russian threat perception”. 125