Recommendation 100

Contrary to the expectations of officials in the Nordic states, and the public messaging of Russian officials, NATO has so far not detected a change in Russia’s military posture in response to Finland’s accession to the Alliance. 121 Indeed, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen noted in August this year that “our border is pretty empty during the war that Russia is illegally waging in Ukraine”. 122 This may reflect temporary resource constraints and a desire on the part of the Russian leadership to keep tensions in the Arctic at a low level while a large proportion of Russia’s land forces are engaged in Ukraine. 123 We were told that Russia’s response to a major NATO exercise planned in Finland next year would be monitored carefully. 124