Recommendation 68

Several witnesses emphasised that one of the most significant areas of concern in the Arctic related to sub-threshold activity—malign activity conducted by an adversary below the level required to trigger a military response. Dr Pincus told the Committee that these activities represented the most likely form of any intentional initiation or escalation in the Arctic region. 73 The Rt Hon James Heappey MP, the Minister for the Armed Forces, also told us that sub-threshold activity, such as maritime sabotage, represented the biggest direct threat from Russia to NATO’s strategic interests. 74