Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 19
19
Accepted
Crown Court backlog growing because cases conclude slower than anticipated.
Conclusion
The NAO report found that MoJ regularly models projections of the size of the Crown Court’s outstanding caseload, and has previously used projections from this modelling to inform decision–making on policy development, resource planning and capacity requirements.47 This modelling includes factors such as incoming demand, case complexity, court capacity and court efficiency.48 The NAO also reported that the actual level of new cases in 2023–24 was lower than the number that MoJ had used to inform its ambition of reducing the backlog to 53,000 by March 2025, and that the increase in the projected backlog is primarily due to cases taking longer on average to conclude than had been expected.49 43 Qq 2, 82 ; C&AG’s Report, para 3.2 44 Q 83 45 Q 77 46 Q 15 47 C&AG’s Report, para 1.11 48 C&AG‘s Report, para 1.13 49 C&AG‘s Report, para 1.15 16
Government Response Summary
The government commits to regularly reviewing its Crown Court caseload projections, incorporating the latest data, trends, and interventions, and continually reviewing its use of data and assumptions. This includes developing a 'OneCrown' single data pipeline to improve data quality and coherence, and reviewing future demand scenarios with CJS partners.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented: April 2025 3.2 Future caseload estimates are a projection based on what is currently known and understood about the system. They are used to aid policy development, capacity planning and resource allocation within MoJ, HMCTS and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS). 3.3 MoJ is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the CJS, ensuring they capture: • Latest data and trends on demand and activity; • New interventions in the system e.g. court capacity changes, new operational policies or legislation that has recently received royal assent; • Latest evidence and insight on future expected activity agreed with partners across the CJS. 3.4 Over the period reviewed by the National Audit Office, the accuracy of the projections was primarily affected by a combination of unforeseen events (e.g. industrial action), and areas where assumptions about the future had a particularly high degree of uncertainty (e.g. the duration of pandemic impacts on the CJS and the impact of the rapid expansion in the number of police officers). 3.5 Nevertheless, MoJ is committed to keeping its use of data, evidence and assumption setting under continual review. This includes: • Development and use in projections of the “OneCrown” single data pipeline to improve the coherence and quality of data on courts. • Future demand scenarios reviewed in collaboration with the Home Office (HO) and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) considering the latest evidence on the factors that influence charge activity in policing (e.g. see chapter 2 of Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 - GOV.UK).