Recommendation 18

MoJ attributed the increasing backlog to a “significant increase” in the rate of new cases as a result of the recruitment of over 20,000 additional police officers since 2019, and to a change in the nature of the caseload to more complex cases.43 MoJ claimed that since the pandemic it has become harder to make accurate forecasts about demand in the Crown Court, although it believes its forecasts are improving.44 HMCTS pointed in particular to the changing proportion of the overall caseload that is accounted for by violent crimes, which is up from 5,000 new cases per quarter in 2016, to 10,000 new cases per quarter in 2024.45 However, the recruitment of additional police officers was a planned–for policy, and MoJ received funding with the explicit purpose of managing the increased demand that would inevitably arise.46