Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 18
18
Accepted
Ministry of Justice struggled to manage planned increase in Crown Court caseload.
Conclusion
MoJ attributed the increasing backlog to a “significant increase” in the rate of new cases as a result of the recruitment of over 20,000 additional police officers since 2019, and to a change in the nature of the caseload to more complex cases.43 MoJ claimed that since the pandemic it has become harder to make accurate forecasts about demand in the Crown Court, although it believes its forecasts are improving.44 HMCTS pointed in particular to the changing proportion of the overall caseload that is accounted for by violent crimes, which is up from 5,000 new cases per quarter in 2016, to 10,000 new cases per quarter in 2024.45 However, the recruitment of additional police officers was a planned–for policy, and MoJ received funding with the explicit purpose of managing the increased demand that would inevitably arise.46
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the Committee's observation and is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the Criminal Justice System, incorporating latest data, trends, and new interventions. They are also developing a 'OneCrown' single data pipeline and reviewing future demand scenarios with partners to improve accuracy.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented: April 2025 3.2 Future caseload estimates are a projection based on what is currently known and understood about the system. They are used to aid policy development, capacity planning and resource allocation within MoJ, HMCTS and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS). 3.3 MoJ is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the CJS, ensuring they capture: • Latest data and trends on demand and activity; • New interventions in the system e.g. court capacity changes, new operational policies or legislation that has recently received royal assent; • Latest evidence and insight on future expected activity agreed with partners across the CJS. 3.4 Over the period reviewed by the National Audit Office, the accuracy of the projections was primarily affected by a combination of unforeseen events (e.g. industrial action), and areas where assumptions about the future had a particularly high degree of uncertainty (e.g. the duration of pandemic impacts on the CJS and the impact of the rapid expansion in the number of police officers). 3.5 Nevertheless, MoJ is committed to keeping its use of data, evidence and assumption setting under continual review. This includes: • Development and use in projections of the “OneCrown” single data pipeline to improve the coherence and quality of data on courts. • Future demand scenarios reviewed in collaboration with the Home Office (HO) and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) considering the latest evidence on the factors that influence charge activity in policing (e.g. see chapter 2 of Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 - GOV.UK).