Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 20
20
Accepted
Ministry of Justice unable to forecast future Crown Court backlog, expects increase.
Conclusion
At our evidence session in January 2025, MoJ could not tell us what it forecast the backlog would be in 12 months’ time. It told us that it would not be right to predict what the backlog will be in a year’s time, as it does not publish projections, although it said it expected that the backlog would be higher then than it is now.50 MoJ explained that this is because the rate of completion of cases is not keeping pace with the increased rate of new cases. It told us that it is seeking to take action, including on court efficiency, to improve that position.51
Government Response Summary
The government agrees with the Committee's observation and is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the Criminal Justice System, incorporating latest data, trends, and new interventions. They are also developing a 'OneCrown' single data pipeline and reviewing future demand scenarios with partners to improve accuracy.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
3.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented: April 2025 3.2 Future caseload estimates are a projection based on what is currently known and understood about the system. They are used to aid policy development, capacity planning and resource allocation within MoJ, HMCTS and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS). 3.3 MoJ is committed to regularly reviewing its projections for the CJS, ensuring they capture: • Latest data and trends on demand and activity; • New interventions in the system e.g. court capacity changes, new operational policies or legislation that has recently received royal assent; • Latest evidence and insight on future expected activity agreed with partners across the CJS. 3.4 Over the period reviewed by the National Audit Office, the accuracy of the projections was primarily affected by a combination of unforeseen events (e.g. industrial action), and areas where assumptions about the future had a particularly high degree of uncertainty (e.g. the duration of pandemic impacts on the CJS and the impact of the rapid expansion in the number of police officers). 3.5 Nevertheless, MoJ is committed to keeping its use of data, evidence and assumption setting under continual review. This includes: • Development and use in projections of the “OneCrown” single data pipeline to improve the coherence and quality of data on courts. • Future demand scenarios reviewed in collaboration with the Home Office (HO) and Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) considering the latest evidence on the factors that influence charge activity in policing (e.g. see chapter 2 of Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 - GOV.UK).