Recommendation 3

Shortcomings in the Scheme’s design have exposed the taxpayer to potentially significant losses. Government achieved its very narrow objective of distributing cash quickly and to a very large number of small businesses across the UK. It delivered £8.4 billion in the first week and £21.3 billion in the first month, and as of 6 September, 90% of loans went to micro-businesses across the UK. This was achieved by removing the checks that extended the delivery period beyond 48 hours; increasing the level of risk through the lack of credit, application and affordability checks. Applicants need only to self-certify the data provided in their loan 6 Covid-19: Bounce Back Loan Scheme application. In the first year, Government is paying interest on the loans on behalf of borrowers, costing approximately £1 billion. In addition, taxpayers are exposed to both avoidable and unavoidable risks: fraud, viability of the underlying business, and unaffordability respectively. The Department estimates potential losses from both fraud and credit risk as somewhere between £15 billion to £26 billion, with the credit losses being the largest part. This estimate is highly uncertain and could be even higher. It indicates that Government was prepared to accept a higher level of risk to ensure that loans were available to SMEs as quickly as possible. Recommendation: Before launching or renewing a Scheme, HM Treasury should be explicit on the level of losses it is likely to entail and the evidence that this analysis is based on. For the remainder of this Scheme, and future schemes, HM Treasury must better balance the interests of the taxpayer with the interests of businesses. It should demonstrate that its controls are cost effective and associated judgements reflect the appropriate balance between achieving immediate policy aims and protecting taxpayers’ money. It should start by assessing whether full reliance on self-certification is still appropriate.