Recommendation 22

The NAO’s latest COVID-19 cost tracker estimates that around 90% of the projected cost of the pandemic will be spent on the government’s response to COVID-19, and around 10% on the recovery phase.40 HM Treasury explained that it is extremely difficult to categorise much COVID-related spending as either part of dealing with the pandemic, or part of recovering from it. It highlighted the vaccines programme as an example of a government action that bridges the two categories. Similarly, economic support schemes, such as the furlough scheme and the various business loan schemes, are both a response to the immediate situation and a critical part of recovery, because they are designed to minimise the long-term damage to the economy from the pandemic. HM Treasury told us it intends to work with the NAO on how best to capture the forecast costs of the recovery.41