COVID-19 cost tracker update
Closed
What the inquiry looked at
“The National Audit Office supports Parliament, and the Public Accounts Committee in particular, in our scrutiny of public spending and service delivery. During the pandemic the NAO has been tracking the cumulative costs of COVID-19 across Government , providing timely accounting information. The Committee will question senior officials at HM Treasury on the unprecedented levels of public spending in the pandemic response, continuing the themes on balance of risk, checks and balances and financing public spending, under examination in our COVID-19 inquiries over the last year. If you have evidence on these questions please submit it here by 6pm on Thursday 20 May 2021.”
The committee's words, from the inquiry page on parliament.uk ↗.
What it found
According to the NAO’s COVID-19 cost tracker, the government’s response to the pandemic has exposed the taxpayer to significant financial risk for the foreseeable future, with the estimated lifetime cost of the government’s measures reaching an eye-watering £372 billion in May 2021, with £172 billion reported spent. In making decisions and initiating measures at a much greater pace than during normal times, the Government took on a greater level of risk by relaxing some of the rules around spending decisions.
Whilst departments faced difficulties in responding quickly to the pandemic, these risks did not always achieve good value for money. This is particularly the case in the estimated £92 billion of loans guaranteed by government as of May 2021, £26 billion of which we were alarmed to learn are now expected to be lost as a result of bad loans to businesses although the exact scale of loss is not going to be known for some time. HM Treasury must follow through on its plans to improve the quality of impact assessments and accounting officer assessments, and its intention to further embed the principles of good financial stewardship outlined in Managing Public Money.
As the UK recovers from the pandemic, it is now more vital than ever that the government, and HM Treasury as custodians of our future finances, maintain accountability for public money, transparency over how it is being used and clarity over what it is achieving. We therefore expect HM Treasury to include a comprehensive framework for managing the risks to public finances resulting from the COVID-19 response in its upcoming Spending Review. This will be followed up on when we hold a further session with HM Treasury later in the year after the NAO’s next update to the cost tracker in October 2021.
The NAO’s COVID-19 cost tracker has shown how information on the actions taken across the whole of government and their estimated costs can be identified and presented in one place, enabling the full picture to be understood. This will be vital in helping government prepare for future fast-paced crisis, or indeed any large cross-government programme, to enable government to make well-informed and rapid financial decisions.
Such an approach should be supported by government and replicated in other situations where it would aid decision making, for example, achieving net-zero greenhouse gases by 2050.
What the government said
The government responded on 17 November 2021. The deadline was 25 September 2021.
The government agrees with five of the Committee's recommendation areas as stated in the document, but "disagrees" with the recommendation to review major COVID-related spending decisions for poor value for money.
- On closer working with the NAO on the cost tracker, the government agrees and states the recommendation is implemented, saying HM Treasury "continues to develop closer partnerships with the NAO".
- It agrees to write to the Committee "by the end of the year" on the structures used to monitor the costs of other large cross-government programmes, with a target implementation date of Winter 2021.
- On impact and Accounting Officer assessments, it agrees and says updated accounting officer assessment guidance is "to be published by the end of the year", with HM Treasury to write to the Committee when it is available.
- It disagrees with reviewing major COVID-related spending decisions, stating that maintaining "a proper division of roles" between Accounting Officers, HM Treasury and the NAO is the best way to learn lessons.
Read the government's response ↗ Read the report ↗ Report an error
How the inquiry ran
Each dot is a dated item listed on this page, from the inquiry's opening on 30 April 2021 to 31 January 2022. The dashed mark is the deadline Parliament records for the government's response.
- Oral evidence 27 May 2021
- Report 25 Jul 2021
- Government response 17 Nov 2021
- Correspondence 2 letters
What it recommended 6 recommendations · 18 conclusions
2The value of the cost tracker is lessened by poor data from some government departments...
3The COVID-19 response means government will be exposed to significant financial risks for decades to...
4Achieving value for money from government expenditure during COVID-19 is being compromised by poor quality...
5The total value of government-backed loans has increased greatly during the crisis.
6It will become increasingly important to distinguish between spending that is aimed at economic and...
1On the basis of the COVID-19 cost tracker published by the Comptroller and Auditor General,...
7HM Treasury told us that it is tracking and controlling public expenditure on COVID-19 in...
8HM Treasury has, over the last few months, started to identify items of spending that...
9HM Treasury confirmed that it regards the NAO’s £372 billion estimate of the total cost...
10The cost tracker purposefully excludes some financial decisions that government has taken as a result...
11We challenged HM Treasury on why several departments are not able to provide the NAO...
12HM Treasury told us of what it is doing to improve its understanding of the...
13HM Treasury reiterated what the Chief Secretary to the Treasury set out in his letter...
14HM Treasury used the example of vaccines development to explain how government took on necessary...
15The Chief Secretary to the Treasury acknowledged in his letter of 1 April 2021 that...
16HM Treasury told us that over the pandemic it had kept the same basic framework...
17HM Treasury explained that it told accounting officers that throughout the pandemic they remained responsible...
18HM Treasury acknowledged that the process of undertaking impact assessments for some major COVID-19 schemes...
19The NAO’s COVID-19 cost tracker presents a current estimate of the cost of write- offs...
20HM Treasury referred specifically to the Bounce Back Loan Scheme, which accounts for £22.8 billion...
21HM Treasury told us that it is currently considering its longer-term approach to the management...
22The NAO’s latest COVID-19 cost tracker estimates that around 90% of the projected cost of...
23HM Treasury assured us that in broad terms government’s pre-pandemic plans and programmes have remained...
24HM Treasury expected more reliable information on the cost of the recovery to become available...
Evidence
Oral evidence sessions 1
- 27 May 2021COVID-19 cost tracker update3 witnesses, listed belowparliament.uk ↗
Who gave evidence 3 witnesses
- Cat LittlePermanent Secretary, Cabinet Office
- Conrad SmewingDirector General Public Spending and Head of the Government Finance Function, HM Treasury
- Sir Tom ScholarPermanent Secretary, HM Treasury