Recommendation 12

We asked whether the Department had been too optimistic in setting out its initial assumptions.42 The National Audit Office reported that the Department originally estimated it would pay between £120 and £310 million to an estimated 15,000 claimants.43 In October 2019, the Department reduced this estimate to between £60 million and £260 million to 11,500 individuals.44 The Department acknowledged that its original forecasts of 15,000 applicants were ‘definitely wrong’ despite being based on its own analysis and census data. It went on to state that, having received only 2,369 applications (see footnote), it was likely to reduce its revised estimate of 11,500 further.45 At the time we took evidence in early June, it reported having paid only £20.5 million in compensation.46