Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 12
12
We asked whether the Department had been too optimistic in setting out its initial assumptions.42...
Conclusion
We asked whether the Department had been too optimistic in setting out its initial assumptions.42 The National Audit Office reported that the Department originally estimated it would pay between £120 and £310 million to an estimated 15,000 claimants.43 In October 2019, the Department reduced this estimate to between £60 million and £260 million to 11,500 individuals.44 The Department acknowledged that its original forecasts of 15,000 applicants were ‘definitely wrong’ despite being based on its own analysis and census data. It went on to state that, having received only 2,369 applications (see footnote), it was likely to reduce its revised estimate of 11,500 further.45 At the time we took evidence in early June, it reported having paid only £20.5 million in compensation.46
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
3.1 The department agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 3.2 The department had revised the scheme’s planning assumption prior to the publication of the Committee’s report. 3.3. Estimating the volume of eligible claims likely to be received remains challenging. 3.4 Despite extensive ongoing outreach efforts, a national communications campaign, and the overhaul to the scheme in December 2020, the department has received significantly fewer claims than initially expected and on 21 July 2021 announced that it was reducing the planning assumption to 4000-6000 claims to reflect this. 3.5 To determine the new planning assumption, the department used a scenario-based approach, drawing upon qualitative and quantitative information from the Windrush Scheme and the Windrush Compensation Scheme, and using judgement where information is limited. This was done in consultation with the Windrush Working Group. 3.6 The new planning assumption more accurately reflects the number of eligible claims that are expected, although a range has been adopted to reflect the inherent uncertainty. 3.7 The revision does not change the department’s commitment to ensuring all affected members of the Windrush generation make a claim and receive the maximum compensation to which they are entitled. 3.8 There is no cap on the amount of compensation the department will pay out or the number of claims the department will accept. 3.9 To ensure no one is prevented from making a claim, if eligible, simply because a deadline passed or because the department has received more claims than it had planned for, the department has removed the formal end date of the scheme.