Recommendation 10

At May 2021, Crossrail Ltd estimated that its cost to complete the programme would be between £15,820 million and £16,008 million, with a middle value of £15,910 million. This was between £30 million and £218 million above the current funding of £15,790 million. The middle estimate was £15,910 million which was £120 million more than funding.25 In July 2021, Crossrail Ltd reported that costs had increased and were now £150 million above funding. Crossrail Ltd told us that this latest increase was to top up a “management reserve” which could be used for any “unknown unknowns” in the programme and that one of the lessons learned from the past was that the Crossrail programme had not previously had such a reserve.26 TfL and Crossrail Ltd told us that much of the difference between estimated cost and current funding was to mitigate prolongation risk and the inclusion of a management reserve for any unexpected costs. Crossrail Ltd must end the expensive Tier 1 contracts as soon as possible to control costs.27 The programme spent approximately £56 million a month between October 2020 and March 2021, so any delay to the programme remains a significant risk to the eventual cost of the Elizabeth line.28