Recommendation 2

The collapse in passenger numbers owing to the pandemic, and subsequent bailout to TfL, has complicated how and when TfL and the Greater London Authority will be able to repay the taxpayer loans for Crossrail. To date, the taxpayer has provided nearly £2.9 billion in loans to TfL and the Greater London Authority (GLA) to fund Crossrail Ltd’s costs on the programme: £750 million to TfL in December 2018; £1,300 million to the GLA in December 2018; and an additional £825 million to the GLA in December 2020. However, this funding may still not be enough, with Crossrail Ltd’s middle estimate cost of the programme in July 2021 (£15,940) coming in £150 million above its current available funding, thus potentially creating a shortfall. The Department expects the £750 million loan to TfL for Crossrail to be financed and repaid from TfL’s own revenues. This loan is separate from over £4 billion of loans from government to support TfL during COVID. Fare revenue is critical to TfL’s finances. Prior to the pandemic, TfL said it received 72% of its income from fares however passenger numbers were plateauing before the pandemic, and have since collapsed. There may be long-term changes to travel patterns, with TfL estimating an 18% drop in demand for rail by 2031 compared with what was expected before the pandemic. Government lending to TfL during the pandemic includes a target to become financially self-sufficient within two years, meaning TfL must identify new revenue streams. The GLA loans are expected to be paid back via London’s Business Rate Supplement (BRS) and Mayoral Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL), with the Commissioner telling us it could take up to 2043 for full repayment. 6 Crossrail: A progress update Recommendation: The Department and TfL should write to the Committee by the end of November setting out TfL’s revenue forecast scenarios, and what they mean for whether the loans for Crossrail will be fully repaid and when.