Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 18
18
Despite the importance of uncertainty analysis, model producers do not routinely assess or communicate to...
Conclusion
Despite the importance of uncertainty analysis, model producers do not routinely assess or communicate to users the uncertainty in their models. There is limited evidence of departments using uncertainty analysis or developing contingency plans, and departments generally present outputs as single estimates.64 Analysis of uncertainty can give clarity on the reliability of the assumptions and the data used in the model. The Analysis Function told us proper reporting of uncertainty is essential and that the function can provide departments with expert support on understanding uncertainty in complex models. It is raising the profile of the importance of uncertainty analysis for senior civil servants and ministers through its data masterclasses.65 The Finance Function told us it intends to upskill and support finance professions in raising standards, including in relation to estimating financial uncertainty.66
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
6.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: March 2023 6.2 The Finance Function will work with the Analysis Function to identify appropriate analysis and modelling considerations relating to uncertainty and incorporate these into the Finance Standard, which (where appropriate) will be incorporated into the Finance Function’s self-assessment tool. Organisations use the tool to assess compliance with the mandatory statements in the Finance Standard.