Recommendation 19

Departments present outputs from their models to HM Treasury as part of the spending review and budget process. HM Treasury uses these outputs for forecasting, budget planning and to monitor emerging risks. Departments usually provide HM 55 Qq 52–53 56 Q 54 57 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, paras 1.20–1.21 58 Q 54 59 Q 11 60 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, paras 3.2–3.9 61 Committee of Public Accounts, Government preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for government on risk, 46th report of Session 2021–22, March 2022, para 15 62 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, para 3.11 63 Committee of Public Accounts, Government preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for government on risk, 46th report of Session 2021–22, March 2022, para 16 64 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, para 3.5 65 Qq 10–15 66 Q 16 14 Use of evaluation and modelling in government Treasury with a single estimate and do not provide a range of uncertainty around it.67 HM Treasury told us it does not check every model that departments develop. For those models it uses to make policy decisions and to agree additional spending, HM Treasury explained it does interrogate these models by challenging departments on the assumptions and ranges used. HM Treasury agrees that dealing with uncertainty properly is central to quality modelling.68 67 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, para 18 68 Q 11 Use of evaluation and modelling in government 15