Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 17
17
Uncertainty is inherent in modelled information and should be considered as part of all analysis.
Conclusion
Uncertainty is inherent in modelled information and should be considered as part of all analysis. HM Treasury believes any model that does not explicitly address uncertainty is deficient.59 Decision-makers need information on the range of outcomes that may occur and their relative likelihoods to develop contingency plans and to avoid putting value for money at risk.60 For example, our report Government preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for government on risk found that government lacked detailed plans for several aspects of the response to COVID-19.61 The NAO’s report found the lack of plans reduced the government’s ability to respond to the emergency.62 The Cabinet Office and the Department of Health & Social Care recognised that government needs to set out risks more broadly and be prepared for a wider range of manifestations of any given risk.63
Government Response
Not Addressed
HM Government
Not Addressed
6.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Target implementation date: March 2023 6.2 The Finance Function will work with the Analysis Function to identify appropriate analysis and modelling considerations relating to uncertainty and incorporate these into the Finance Standard, which (where appropriate) will be incorporated into the Finance Function’s self-assessment tool. Organisations use the tool to assess compliance with the mandatory statements in the Finance Standard.