Recommendation 17

Uncertainty is inherent in modelled information and should be considered as part of all analysis. HM Treasury believes any model that does not explicitly address uncertainty is deficient.59 Decision-makers need information on the range of outcomes that may occur and their relative likelihoods to develop contingency plans and to avoid putting value for money at risk.60 For example, our report Government preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons for government on risk found that government lacked detailed plans for several aspects of the response to COVID-19.61 The NAO’s report found the lack of plans reduced the government’s ability to respond to the emergency.62 The Cabinet Office and the Department of Health & Social Care recognised that government needs to set out risks more broadly and be prepared for a wider range of manifestations of any given risk.63