Recommendation 16

Transparency of the models that departments use is poor: only 9 out of 17 departments have published their list of business-critical models since 2013, and only four of those have updated this since 2017.54 HM Treasury has not published its own list of business-critical 44 Qq 43,55 45 Q 43 46 Q 49 47 C&AG’s Report, Evaluating government spending, para 20 48 Q 43 49 Q 44 50 C&AG’s Report, Evaluating government spending, para 3.14 51 Qq 33, 44 52 Q 33 53 Q 7 54 C&AG’s Report, Financial modelling in government, para 12 Use of evaluation and modelling in government 13 models since 2013. It told us it intends to update its list within the next few months given the importance of leading by example.55 There can be a public interest in publishing a model in its entirety; for example, the Office of Budgetary Responsibility publishes the code and variables for its model of the economy so that others can use it.56 In other cases, publishing details of the model such as the outputs or assumptions gives parliament and the public assurance about how decisions are made. However, 45 models out of the NAO’s sample of 75 had no information published about them.57 HM Treasury told us it is discussing how to improve guidance to clarify what information departments should publish about models.58 Uncertainty