Managing NHS backlogs & waiting times
Closed
What the inquiry looked at
“As the Committee reported in March, the NHS in England was already running at close to maximum capacity before COVID-19. Pandemic disruption caused a sharp increase in waiting times and backlogs. Addressing these backlogs is a multi-faceted challenge for the NHS. In this follow up inquiry, the Committee will question senior officials at the Department for Health & Social Care and NHS England on the start they have made on tackling the elective care and cancer backlogs, focusing on: the design of national recovery plans; implementation of the recovery plans, including the use of independent sector providers; and early progress made in recovering services. If you have evidence on these issues including the findings of the NAO report underlying this inquiry and call for evidence , please submit here by Sunday 20 November at 18:00.”
The committee's words, from the inquiry page on parliament.uk ↗.
What it found
NHS England’s (NHSE’s) three-year recovery programme for elective and cancer care is very ambitious, relies on innovative but relatively untested approaches, and is already falling short of expectations in its first year. Waiting times for cancer treatment are especially worrying. In the first five months of the recovery period the proportion of people receiving timely cancer treatment has decreased. Only 62% of cancer patients were treated within 62 days of their urgent referral by a GP, when performance should be 85%. It is now clear that the target to reduce the number of people waiting for more than 62 days following an urgent GP referral to the pre-pandemic level will not be met by March 2023. It is also clear that, for elective care, the planned route to increasing activity to 129% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024–25 is unachievable. Being off track means more patients suffering the unacceptable consequences of waiting too long.
Despite the first target for elective care being to eliminate two-year waits by July 2022, in August there were 2,600 patients who had been waiting more than two years. We have serious doubts that the endpoints of the NHS recovery plan—the target to reach 129% of 2019–20 activity and the elimination of 52-week elective waits in March 2025 —will be met on time. Assumptions NHSE made about the first year of recovery were overoptimistic, including that there would be low levels of COVID-19 and minimal winter pressures.
The 13 individual programmes NHSE is running to recover elective and cancer waiting times aim for sensible and necessary improvements. But the overall strategy lacks detail on how and when these programmes will combine to create additional capacity and at what cost. There appears to have been a dearth of advance planning to ensure the NHS has the staffing and other resources it needs to deliver additional diagnostic and treatment capacity, much of which was already needed before the COVID-19 pandemic.
NHSE’s approach too often is to react to these problems as and when they arise, as opposed to making realistic assessments and strategic plans. This is not making the best use of the NHS’s hardworking and committed frontline staff. NHSE must act now to improve its management of the recovery programme.
Finally, it is also clear that the success of the recovery programme is reliant on realistic long-term planning in other areas of health and care. There are two areas which most obviously require effective planning to enable elective recovery. The first is at the interfaces between health and care, to increase the capacity of adult social care so that the flow through hospitals improves. The second is the long overdue strategic approach to creating a productive healthcare workforce of the right size, including clarity about how long it will take to reach these levels through sufficient domestic training.
What the government said
The government responded on 30 May 2023. The deadline was 1 May 2023.
The government agrees with most of the Committee's recommendations on NHS backlogs and waiting times, but disagrees with the recommendation to reassess recovery targets following the workforce plan and discharge improvements.
- On planning assumptions, the government agrees and says trajectories and planning assumptions are "formally reviewed and revised annually through the operational planning process".
- On funding and the effectiveness of initiatives, the government agrees, and says NHS England "will write to the Committee before summer recess" on how elective recovery funding will be spent and on the impact of community diagnostic centres, surgical hubs, the independent sector and advice and guidance.
- It disagrees with reassessing recovery targets after the workforce plan and discharge improvements. It says all aspects of NHS performance are "kept under continued review" and conclusions will be reflected "as necessary" in planning guidance and/or the mandate.
- It agrees to publish workforce projections and says the NHS long term workforce plan "is due to be published shortly including further details on independent verification", with a target date of Spring 2023.
Read the government's response ↗ Read the report ↗ Report an error
How the inquiry ran
Each dot is a dated item listed on this page, from the inquiry's opening on 31 October 2022 to its close on 1 June 2023. The dashed mark is the deadline Parliament records for the government's response.
- Oral evidence 28 Nov 2022
- Report 1 Mar 2023
- Government response 30 May 2023
- Correspondence 2 letters
What it recommended 8 recommendations · 16 conclusions
2NHS England was over-optimistic about the circumstances in which the NHS would be trying to...
3NHS funding has increased, but to deliver key priorities such as elective and cancer recovery...
4NHS England’s elective recovery programme partly relies on initiatives which have potential but for which...
5NHSE started 2022–23 with a strategy but spent most of the year dealing with tactical...
6The NHS’s recovery cannot succeed without comprehensive, realistic and sustainable plans for the future of...
1On the basis of a report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, we took evidence...
7In July 2022, the Chief Executive of the NHS, wrote to all Chief Executives of...
8This Committee first looked at post-pandemic backlogs in December 2021, publishing our report in March...
9We asked NHSE about its optimism at the time it agreed the recovery targets.
10We shared our concerns about the risks facing the NHS and its ability to deliver...
11Macmillan Cancer Support and Healthwatch Suffolk submitted evidence to us containing powerful examples of the...
12The Department has allocated £14 billion to NHS England from 2022–23 to 2024–25 specifically to...
13We asked NHSE about whether, in its view, this would provide the NHS with sufficient...
14NHSE has estimated that the NHS was around 16% less productive in 2021 than before...
15NHSE’s elective recovery programme includes plans for: • GPs to handle many elective cases previously...
16We asked how confident NHSE was about the component programmes in its plan, particularly those...
17Surgical hubs and community diagnostic centres have potential, but success will rely on them being...
18We also asked NHSE whether its increased use of the independent healthcare sector might detract...
19We asked NHSE about its programme management of the recovery and its strategic approach to...
20NHSE told us that it monitored performance constantly, with fresh data available weekly, and that...
21In response to our question about improving areas that have seen long-term underperformance, sometimes dating...
22This report is the Committee’s second on NHS backlogs, the first being published in March...
23We asked the Department if it agreed that it was more sustainable to train more...
24We asked about other key enablers of a successful recovery of elective and cancer care.
Evidence
Oral evidence sessions 1
- 28 Nov 2022Managing NHS backlogs & waiting time5 witnesses, listed belowparliament.uk ↗
Who gave evidence 5 witnesses
- Amanda PritchardChief Executive Officer, NHS England
- Matthew StyleDirector General for Secondary Care and Integration, Department of Health and Social Care
- Professor Sir Steve PowisNational Medical Director and Chief Executive of NHS Improvement, NHS England
- Sir Chris WormaldPermanent Secretary, Department of Health and Social Care
- Sir James MackeyChief Executive, NHS England
Correspondence 2 letters
- 24 May 2023Correspondence from Amanda Pritchard, Chief Executive Officer, NHS England, re Thirty Eighth Report on NHS Backlogs and Waiting Times: Recommendations Three and Four, dated 15 May 2023
- 19 Dec 2022Correspondence from Sir Chris Wormald, Permanent Secretary, Department of Health & Social Care, re PAC Hearing: Managing NHS Backlogs and Waiting Times, dated 12 December 2022