Recommendation 8

This Committee first looked at post-pandemic backlogs in December 2021, publishing our report in March 2022. We noted that officials appeared to be planning on the basis of optimistic future scenarios and also that there was general over-optimism from officials on the short- and medium-term resilience of the NHS.15 The latest National Audit Office report states that the recovery plan contained over-optimistic assumptions about maintaining low levels of COVID-19 in 2022–23 and suffering minimal adverse effects from winter pressures.16 It notes that NHSE’s internal target for completed elective pathways in 2022–23 was 102% of the pre-pandemic level, but actually elective activity was at just 95% of pre-pandemic levels in the first five months of 2022–23.17 Put simply, this means that the elective recovery is already off track.