Source · Select Committees · Treasury Committee
Recommendation 26
26
Paragraph: 178
The Treasury’s macroeconomic forecasting ability appears to have eroded since the formation of the OBR.
Conclusion
The Treasury’s macroeconomic forecasting ability appears to have eroded since the formation of the OBR. The Treasury needs to maintain sufficient forecasting capacity outside the OBR so that it can ensure that it can adapt policy responses rapidly to an urgent situation. In its response to this report, the Treasury should explain in detail its short-term macroeconomic forecasting capabilities, and how macroeconomic forecasting analysis has informed the design, scope and scale of its interventions during the crisis.
Paragraph Reference:
178
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
Finally, on your recommendation on the Treasury’s relationship with the OBR and its role in macro-forecasting, the OBR produces independent forecasts for the Government. The Treasury does not produce forecasts for the economy or public finances. The Treasury and the OBR jointly maintain and develop a large-scale macroeconomic model, and the arrangements are set out in a Memorandum of Understanding. Beyond this, policy advice to Ministers covers the economic context, including the sectoral and regional dimensions, and draws on official ONS data and official forecasts (by the Bank of England and OBR), as well as external forecasts, to give Ministers a sense of the possible range of impact of the policy measures being considered. In looking at the economic impact on particular sectors, we draw on information provided by the relevant departments.