Source · Select Committees · Treasury Committee
Recommendation 25
25
Acknowledged
Paragraph: 177
We suggest that by the next fiscal event the Treasury clarifies its relationship with the...
Recommendation
We suggest that by the next fiscal event the Treasury clarifies its relationship with the OBR, in particular what the process is for declaring a Treasury announcement to be a fiscal event requiring an OBR economic and fiscal forecast.
Government response summary AI-generated
The government acknowledged the recommendation, describing the existing independent role of the OBR in forecasting and their joint macroeconomic model, but did not commit to new clarification on the process for declaring a fiscal event.
Summary of the government's response below — read the verbatim text to verify.
Paragraph Reference:
177
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government · verbatim extract
Acknowledged
Finally, on your recommendation on the Treasury’s relationship with the OBR and its role in macro-forecasting, the OBR produces independent forecasts for the Government. The Treasury does not produce forecasts for the economy or public finances. The Treasury and the OBR jointly maintain and develop a large-scale macroeconomic model, and the arrangements are set out in a Memorandum of Understanding. Beyond this, policy advice to Ministers covers the economic context, including the sectoral and regional dimensions, and draws on official ONS data and official forecasts (by the Bank of England and OBR), as well as external forecasts, to give Ministers a sense of the possible range of impact of the policy measures being considered. In looking at the economic impact on particular sectors, we draw on information provided by the relevant departments.
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