An analysis of the asylum system

The government should, by the end of 2026, set out and present to Parliament a strategic plan for implementing the proposed new asylum model that supports long-term sustainability and reduces reliance on short-term, reactive responses that have resulted in avoidable costs and undesirable outcomes. It should then publish an annual assessment of progress. The plan should:

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The Home Office should work with the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG) and other relevant partners in the asylum system to develop a blueprint and implementation plan for the data framework the asylum system needs in the long term. This will include understanding:

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the current effect on outcomes, quality, efficiency and cost across the asylum system of data quality problems and the lack of a single reliable record on each person seeking asylum;

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the causes of the key data quality problems and where in the system they arise; and

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what technical, architectural or behavioural changes would be needed to address these problems and what those changes would cost.

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The government should: bring together and build on the modelling and system design work from the Home Office and MoJ, alongside local authority analysis from MHCLG to provide a basis for joined-up policy design and decision-making; and

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taking into account the Magenta Book principle of proportionate evaluation, ensure that interventions are supported by an evidence base and theory of change, including relevant international evidence where appropriate, an assessment of expected costs and benefits across the end-to-end asylum system, and an evaluation plan, and these are published unless there is an overriding reason why that would not be appropriate.

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articulate high-level objectives for the asylum system as a whole;

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acknowledge the fundamental constraints that contribute to people seeking asylum spending extended periods waiting in the system and clarify how it will optimise value for money and ensure effective operation given these constraints, recognising that some may not be fully resolvable and will require approaches that work around them; and

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be explicit that to deliver the objectives and value for money in the long term, the government will need to ensure the asylum system is resilient and able to adapt to reasonably foreseeable volatility in demand.

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To deliver and sustain the new model, the government should establish a lasting framework of joined-up governance and accountability for value for money across the asylum system, supported by senior leadership. The framework should enable shared decision-making on policy and resource allocation, manage trade-offs based on overall effectiveness, and prevent pressures being shifted between parts of the system.

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The government should publish a broad and balanced set of system indicators that reflect outcomes, quality, and efficiency for people seeking asylum, taxpayers, and citizens. The government should report to Parliament on these indicators as part of its annual assessment in a way that:

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provides transparency on the overall state of the asylum system, acknowledging factors outside government control;

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shows progress over time by reporting year-on-year trends and explaining the drivers behind performance changes; and

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shows how the government plans to close performance gaps and improve delivery of the objectives.

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