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ETI-9

Risk Management Standards

Edinburgh Tram Inquiry · Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report · Issued 19 September 2023 · Addressed to: Scottish Government

Government responseScottish Government: Noted (Nov 2023)

DeliveryNo statement from Scottish Government found

Recommendation, verbatim from the inquiry

●Inquiry recommendation, Chapter 25 Recommendation 9 (paragraph 25.221)

The identification and management of risk should be an integral part of the governance of all major public-sector contracts in future. In identifying and managing risk the following principles should be adopted:
• Probabilistic forecasts rather than single-point forecasts should be used to take account of the risk appetite of funders and project sponsors.
• Funders, sponsors and project managers should be cautious when adjusting uplifts and there should be critical review of claims that mitigation measures have reduced project risk.
• Effective governance needs to provide constant challenge and control of the project, including recording of where the project is compared with its baseline, and reacting quickly to get the project back on track, whenever there are signs that it is veering off course. This necessitates providing senior decision-makers with data-driven reports on project performance and forecasts combined with reports by the management team and independent audits.
• In reporting to governance bodies there should be special emphasis on detecting early warning signs that the cost, schedule and benefit risks may be materialising so that damage to the project can be prevented. If early warning signs do emerge, the project should revisit assumptions and reassess risk and optimism bias forecasts.
• The quality of evidence rather than process is the key to providing effective oversight and validation.

Edinburgh Tram Inquiry, Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report · 19 Sep 2023 Source PDF →

Published evidence summary

AI-generated evidence summary

In November 2023, Màiri McAllan, Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition, stated that the Scottish Government and its public bodies "already operate in line with these recommendations and best practice" as demonstrated by their delivery of major infrastructure projects (Màiri McAllan response, Nov 2023). In February 2024, the City of Edinburgh Council Transport and Environment Committee agreed that a report would be brought back setting out what funding had been allocated and what measures would be taken regarding recommendation 9 on risk and optimism bias (City of Edinburgh Council, Feb 2024).

AI-generated summary of the record on this page, checked by a second model and automatic checks, 26 Sep 2026.

About this summary
This recommendation applies across many organisations. The record above reflects central policy activity; adoption in individual organisations may vary.

Government response

●Scottish Government · Noted · 2 Nov 2023

Words of: Màiri McAllan, Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition, statement to the Scottish Parliament, 2 November 2023 (text as published by the Scottish Government)

The remaining thirteen recommendations cover a range of areas relating to the governance and delivery of light rail projects. While these recommendations are directed squarely at project leads and Local Authority officials, there is a link to much of the work being done by this Government and its agencies, including Transport Scotland.

I am pleased to report that this Government and its public bodies already operate in line with these recommendations and best practice as evidenced by our excellent record of delivering major infrastructure projects including the Borders Railway, the Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Programme, the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route and the Queensferry Crossing over the Forth Estuary, a complex engineering feat that has put our workmanship to the front and centre of global engineering.

Response document: Edinburgh Tram Inquiry Report: Transport Secretary statement

Site note: The statement gives this passage once, for what it calls "the remaining thirteen recommendations", and does not list them. The site records it on ETI-5, ETI-6, ETI-7, ETI-9, ETI-13 and ETI-14, the recommendations the site addresses to the Scottish Government that the statement does not answer elsewhere.

Delivery

No statement on delivery from Scottish Government has been found in the sources searched. This is separate from the response above.

What other bodies have found

In their own words. These do not change the delivery statement above.

●City of Edinburgh Council · 1 Feb 2024

To agree a report be brought back following the response to this letter confirming what Scottish Government funding was allocated and the report would include what measures they would take in regard to Lord Hardie’s recommendation 9 on Risk and Optimism Bias.

From: Minutes, Transport and Environment Committee, 1 February 2024 (item 9, Tram from Granton to BioQuarter and beyond)

Site note: This is part of the decision of the City of Edinburgh Council's Transport and Environment Committee of 1 February 2024 on the tram extension from Granton to the BioQuarter. The site addresses recommendation 9 to the Scottish Government, so this row is shown as another body's account and does not set the recommendation's status. No report to the Committee that names recommendation 9 was found in the Council's published papers to September 2026.

How this page is built

The recommendation and the government responses are verbatim from primary documents. Delivery statements and other bodies' findings are shown in their own words, each with its source. The summary is written by this site and labelled as such. The Index does not paraphrase sources or characterise intent; it records what has been published.