Recommendation 73

Russia has maintained a strategic foothold on the archipelago, operating a consulate and a coal mine in the settlement of Barentsburg. We heard that Norwegian policymakers believe they have established and well-resourced mechanisms to manage incidents on Svalbard. 83 Prof Dodds told the House of Commons Defence Committee in 2017 that “Some obvious flashpoints would be anything to do with Svalbard … you would not have to be terribly clever to think of scenarios where the delicate relationship that exists between Russia and Norway could be upended.” 84 The RAND Corporation also identified Svalbard as a potential flashpoint for sub-threshold and ‘grey zone’ threats. 85