Recommendation 64

Reduced channels of communication make it harder to deconflict military activity and avoid misunderstanding or miscalculation. Increased tensions between Russia and the West and vehemently anti-Western attitudes among the Russian leadership may also complicate efforts to de-escalate following an incident. Mathieu Boulègue noted: “It would not benefit Russia to escalate in case of accident in the region, once again because it wants to move tension away, but accidents happen and there is always the possibility and the opportunity for accidents to happen—hot-headed pilots who have been decimated in Ukraine taking a very strong and very brazen reaction, which therefore leads to brinkmanship activities that could increase the cost of deterrence and therefore lead to escalation, if not confrontation. There is less restraint and more pressure in this environment.” 65