Recommendation 57

Some witnesses assessed that the Russian leadership’s current strategic focus remains on removing tension from the Arctic. Professor Dodds, Executive Dean and Professor of Geopolitics at Royal Holloway, told us that “it is not in the interests of the Russian Federation to have a conflictual Arctic”. 58 Dr Rebecca Pincus of the Wilson Centre Polar Institute noted that Russia has developed some of its most advanced and strategic military capabilities in the Arctic territory, but stressed that the key question was not about Russian capabilities, but intent: “I do not see motives for Russia to initiate conflict in the Arctic. The past year of fighting in Ukraine only reinforces my thinking. Russian lower-end capabilities have been significantly eroded in Ukraine. It is not clear why, or to what purpose, Russia would initiate or expand conflict in the Arctic, which would entail conflict with a NATO ally”. 59