Recommendation 4

Planning for how resources are allocated across the asylum system is fragmented and often reactive, repeatedly shifting backlogs rather than reducing them. There is a recurring pattern in which delays are not fully resolved but instead shift from one part of the asylum system to another. For instance, recent increases in caseworking productivity have not been matched by sufficient capacity in the appeals system, creating new bottlenecks at this stage of the process. Although the Home Office has noted that the government has funded additional sitting days in the First-tier Tribunal, this does not amount to a coordinated, system-wide capacity plan. Long-term demand management remains underdeveloped, with planning often focused on short-term fixes rather than the needs of the system as a whole. While we welcome the recruitment of additional judges, the Ministry of Justice could not explain how this aligns with wider resourcing decisions or how competing pressures across the tribunal are being balanced. We are disappointed by the clear lack of coordinated planning and the extent to which departments are still operating largely in silos. Without joint planning, shared modelling and agreed performance measures, the reforms are unlikely to deliver sustained reductions in backlogs, costs or delays. recommendation The Home Office, working with the Ministry of Justice, MHCLG and other partners, should develop and share with the Committee, no later than by the end of 2026, its understanding of the current capacity gaps across the system, their underlying causes and its plan for addressing them. As part of this, the departments should set out how they are bringing together and building on their existing modelling and system-design work to create a single shared evidence base that enables joint planning and decision-making.